Broncos vs. Bills: NFL Divisional Round Odds, Prediction

After ending Jacksonville’s winning streak, the Bills travel to Denver to face the Broncos. 

Buffalo captured a 27-24 win over the hot Jaguars. The win improved Buffalo to 13-0 on the season when the offense scores at least 23 points. 

Now, the team will try for a second playoff win in as many seasons against the Broncos. Last year, Buffalo dispatched Denver 35-7 at home in the wild-card round. 

Bet on Broncos vs. Bills and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

Broncos vs. Bills: NFL Divisional Round Odds

Broncos vs. Bills Prediction

Based on Denver’s lack of experience against good rushing attacks and Buffalo’s passing advantages, my Broncos vs Bills prediction is the Bills Moneyline (-120). 

Sunday’s win over Jacksonville proved an uncharacteristic path to victory for Buffalo. 

Prior to that game, the Bills finished 0-4 when James Cook finished under 100 all-purpose yards. 

Additionally, Buffalo posted a 1-4 record in the regular season when Josh Allen attempted at least 31 passes. He attempted 35 on Sunday against the Jaguars. 

Of further concern for Buffalo is that Allen is clearly playing hurt. But I’m not sure it matters in this spot. 

Denver ranks fifth in defensive DVOA, including third against the run, per ftnfantasy.com. But they’ve faced only one opposing offense ranked fifth or higher. 

That matchup came all the way back in Week 2, a 29-28 loss at Indianapolis. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 165 yards, including a 66-yarder. 

Buffalo posted a +11.7% rush DVOA percentage before opponent adjustments. After opponent adjustments, that percentage rises to +13.4%. 

That renders Buffalo’s rushing attack as Denver’s hardest opponent on the season. Additionally, Buffalo carries another advantage on offense. 

Denver’s worst corner is slot defender Ja’Quan McMillian. This season, McMillian’s 426 yards allowed in coverage rank third-most among slot corners. 

In a man-heavy Broncos scheme, McMillian draws Khalil Shakir, who runs 70% of his routes from the slot. Additionally, Denver allowed the eighth-most yards to tight ends. 

Those fine margins should lead to some potential regression by Denver. From Week 5 onward, Denver won 12 games with only two coming by over a possession. 

Betting Broncos vs. Bills: NFL Public Betting