Broncos vs Jaguars: NFL Week 2 Odds, Prediction & Pick

Below, bettors can find NFL odds and a Broncos vs Jaguars prediction for the pivotal AFC clash in Denver.

Broncos vs Jaguars Odds, Spread & Over/Under for Week 2

Jaguars vs Broncos Prediction

Based on how the Broncos struggled in Week 1 and Jacksonville’s misleading performance in Denver last year, my Broncos vs Jaguars prediction is the Broncos Spread (-2.5, -115). 

First, it’s an uncomfortable number to lay with a regression candidate on a short week.

However, I’m here to argue that Denver looked slightly better defensively than in its MNF performance.

Kansas City scored 31 points. Its first seven came on a short field after a Bo Nix interception. After that touchdown, Kansas City relied on explosives to exploit Denver’s defense.

Denver’s defense finished Week 1 ranked 22nd in defensive EPA per play, including 32nd against the run. However, it ranked 11th in total success rate and 16th in run success rate.

Jacksonville lacks a coherent running attack and offensive line to replicate the Chiefs’ offensive performance. Last year in Denver, the Jaguars relied on passing explosives to score 34 points.

Liam Coen’s offense posted a +0.128 EPA per play in Week 16 (14th). However, their 38.6% success rate placed them 27th. Through the air: 12th in EPA, 20th in success rate.

For the Broncos offense, the matchup is a much easier test than Week 1.

Jacksonville faced a horrific Browns offense in Week 1. The unit kept relying on turnovers to stop the Browns. When it didn’t, they allowed Cleveland to move the ball.

On plays excluding turnovers, Jacksonville’s defense ranked 10th in EPA per play compared to 18th in success rate.

I trust Bo Nix more than Deshaun Watson to avoid turnovers. Plus, Jacksonville ranked 19th in rushing success rate when facing the Browns.

Given those factors, it’s the Broncos or nothing on Sunday. However, my opinion is to wait and see if this line reaches Broncos -2 before making a call.