Broncos vs Patriots Parlay Pick for AFC Championship

Below, bettors can find a three-leg SGP for Broncos vs Patriots based on NFL odds. 

Current Broncos vs Patriots odds price New England as a five-point favorite. An adjustment occurred toward the Patriots after Denver lost quarterback Bo Nix for the season. 

The total for the game is 42 points, up from 40.5 at market open. 

AFC Championship Parlay Picks: Broncos vs Patriots

• Denver Broncos Moneyline
• Denver Broncos Over 16.5 Points
• Drake Maye Over 0.5 Interceptions

Parlay Odds: +320

Broncos vs Patriots Odds: AFC Championship

Broncos vs Patriots Parlay Pick

Denver Broncos Moneyline

There seems to be a resignation that the Patriots will cruise to Super Bowl 60. I, for one, am buying this game plays closer than the odds suggest. 

New England has not lost away from home this year. But only two of those wins came against top-10 DVOA teams (Baltimore, Buffalo). 

By cumulative DVOA, Denver’s defense presents New England’s stiffest road test. It comes at a time when Drake Maye has averaged a 5.5% turnover-worthy play rate in the playoffs. 

Denver wreaked havoc on an otherworldly quarterback and top-tier offensive line. This line offers significantly smaller resistance for Denver’s elite pass rush. 

For Jarrett Stidham, the sole mission here is to keep the ball out of harm’s way. If he does that – and Denver’s defense shows up again – I predict the hosts win outright. 

Denver Broncos Over 16.5 Points

As noted earlier, the total for this game is on the move. Oddsmakers opened the over/under at 40.5 points. It’s already up to 42.

New England’s defense is not as scary as Denver’s actual team total (18.5) would indicate. Away from home, the Patriots defense kept only the Jets and Titans under this line. 

Say what you will about Denver’s offense, but Sean Payton’s unit has cleared this line in all but one home game. 

That came on short rest against the Raiders off a visit to Houston. 

Payton gets a week to prepare with Stidham. I trust him to put together an offensive gameplan that moves the ball against an exploitable defense. 

Drake Maye Over 0.5 Interceptions

As previously referenced, Maye significantly increased his turnover-worthy play rate during the playoffs. 

His 5.5% average is up from a 2.2% rate during the regular season. That includes a 5.1% rate against the Chargers, a comparably inferior unit to the Broncos pass defense. 

The second-year signal caller finished four road games without a turnover-worthy play. Three of those successes came against teams 28th or worse in pass defense DVOA. 

Baltimore and Cincinnati both forced Maye into a 4.8% rate or higher. 

Even more concerning? Maye enters this game as a massive negative regression candidate. Including the playoffs, he threw 10 interceptions against 21 turnover-worthy plays. 

Against a strong unit, I predict Maye will regress and throw an interception.