- The Broncos are predicted to be a 4.5-point home underdog against the Patriots.
- Drake Maye is 12-1 SU as a market favorite through 13 starts.
- My Broncos vs Patriots prediction is the Total Over 40.5 Points (-115).
The AFC Championship pits the Denver Broncos against the New England Patriots.Â
Denver won 33-30 in overtime against Buffalo on Saturday. However, the Broncos lost Bo Nix to a fractured right ankle and will turn to Jarrett Stidham in the AFC Championship.Â
New England forced five turnovers in a 28-16 win over Houston. The win improved Drake Maye to 12-1 SU as a market favorite in his short career.Â
Bet on Broncos vs. Patriots and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.Â
Broncos vs. Patriots: AFC Championship Odds
Broncos vs. Patriots Prediction
Based on New England’s offensive inefficiency last week and Denver’s home-field advantage, my Broncos vs Patriots prediction is the Broncos Moneyline (+200).Â
So much of the focus is on Denver’s quarterback situation. It’s my perspective that’s causing bettors to lose sight of a key advantage for the Broncos.Â
New England won last week despite three Maye turnovers. The offensive line also surrendered five sacks to their second-year quarterback.Â
Denver could easily replicate Houston’s pass rush success. As referenced earlier, the defense ranks third in pass-rush win rate, per ESPN.Â
Only four quarterbacks saw more pressured dropbacks than Maye this year. Opposing defenses sacked only one quarterback (Jaxson Dart) more times than Maye.Â
This game marks Maye’s first of the year on the road against a defense owning a sack percentage north of 9%.Â
New England narrowly beat Atlanta 24-23 at home despite a -2 turnover margin and six sacks allowed. They beat Cleveland 32-13 at home, despite allowing six sacks once again.Â
It’s scary to think about how traveling to a hostile environment might change those metrics.Â
Compounding that skepticism is Broncos edge rusher Nik Bonitto, who ranked second amongst edge rushers in pass rush win rate.Â
No one believes in the Broncos here. As of Friday morning, 65% of bets are on New England to cover the spread.Â
Given those factors, I predict the Broncos win outright and reach Super Bowl 60.Â
Betting Broncos vs. Patriots: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots (-3.5) | 64% | 61% |
| Broncos (+3.5) | 36% | 39% |
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