Broncos vs. Ravens: Betting Trends & Prediction for Week 13

min read
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Devin Duvernay (13) runs during the second half of an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
Andrew Doughty @DoughtyBetMGM Nov 29, 2022, 11:55 AM
  • The Broncos have an eight-game road losing streak.
  • Post-loss betting trends for the Ravens.
  • First-unders in low-total games continue hitting.

The Denver Broncos’ loss to the Carolina Panthers in Week 12 extended their road losing streak to eight games – tied for the longest in franchise history – and ATS losing streak to three games, giving them 17 ATS losses in their last 25 games dating back to October 2021.

Against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 13, the Broncos are now tasked with defying big moneyline odds (+300 as of Monday) to snap the eight-game road skid and covering an 8-point spread to earn just their fourth ATS win of the season.

Here are three NFL betting trends and one moneyline prediction for the Broncos’ road game against the Ravens on Sunday:

Post-Loss Ravens Moneyline

In Week 5 – one week after losing to the Buffalo Bills – the Ravens beat the Cincinnati Bengals at home.

In Week 7 – one week after losing to the New York Giants – the Ravens beat the Cleveland Browns at home.

Those wins moved 15th-year head coach John Harbaugh to 32-14 (+13.4 ROI) in home games after a loss in the Ravens’ previous game. After losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 12, Harbaugh is seeking a 33rd win in 57 opportunities.

Post-Loss Ravens Spread

The Ravens are great at winning at home after a loss. They aren’t, however, good at covering the spread at home after a loss.

They didn’t cover -3 in the win over the Bengals, nor did they cover -6.5 in the win over the Browns. Those ATS losses dropped them to 18-26-2 (-19.9% ROI) in Harbaugh-coached home games after a loss in their previous game.

First-Half Unders in Low-Total Games

The Broncos and Panthers combined for only 13 first-half points to comfortably hit the first-half under (18). It was one of three first-half unders to hit in low-total games (42 or lower) in Week 12, as this trend had its fifth straight profitable week.

First-half unders in games with a total of 42 or lower are hitting at a 60% clip this season for an ROI of +11.8%. Only Weeks 1, 2, and 7 have been in the red.

The Broncos-Ravens game total is currently 38.5. If that holds, the first-half total will likely be around 20.

Broncos vs. Panthers Prediction

This week’s NFL standings are lying; the Ravens aren’t a four-loss team.

Three of their four game-losing plays have come a combined 28 seconds from the end of regulation. And the fourth game-losing play was Saquon Barkley’s touchdown run with 1:47 left in the New York Giants’ eventual four-point win, which is tied for the Ravens’ largest margin of defeat this season.

The Ravens are a one- or two-loss team contending for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, masquerading as a four-loss team fighting for a playoff spot.

I’m picking against the post-loss Ravens’ trend: Ravens 31, Broncos 13

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About the Author

Andrew Doughty

Read More @DoughtyBetMGM

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.