Browns vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 17, 2022, 1:45 PM
  • The Bills (6-3) are -8 point favorites vs the Browns (3-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Cleveland Browns (3-7) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (7-3) on Nov. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Orchard Park.

The are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Browns vs. Bills Over/Under is total points for the game.

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Browns vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Browns
Bills

Browns vs. Bills Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 11 game with 77.0% confidence.

Browns vs Bills Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread this Week 11 with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Browns and Bills, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Browns Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Browns players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Donovan Peoples-Jones has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.25 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Harrison Bryant has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games (+6.05 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Jacoby Brissett has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • David Njoku has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Jacoby Brissett has hit the Completions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 65% ROI)

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Devin Singletary has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.75 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Nyheim Hines has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Gabriel Davis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.00 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have scored first in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.20 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+4.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.00 Units / 73% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have scored first in 13 of their last 15 games (+9.95 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.60 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.50 Units / 21% ROI)

Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns have gone 4-5 (-1.55 Units / -15.82% ROI).

  • Browns are 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -37.65% ROI
  • Browns are 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 38.38% ROI
  • Browns are 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.6 Units / ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 4-4 (-0.4 Units / -4.02% ROI).

  • Bills are 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.2 Units / -12.8% ROI
  • Bills are 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI
  • Bills are 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI

Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Browns are winless (0-7) when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .333.

The Browns are winless (0-3) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .412.

The Browns are 1-6 (.143) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game since the 2021 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .445.

The Browns are winless (0-4) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .370.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns

The Bills are undefeated (4-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .556.

The Bills are winless (0-6) when scoring less than 22 points since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .241.

The Bills are winless (0-2) when allowing 3 or more sacks this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.

The Bills are 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .584.

Additional Matchup Notes for Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 40.9% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — third-best in NFL. The Browns defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 29.0% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

The Bills have scored on 43% of their drives this season — fifth-best in NFL. The Browns defense has allowed scores on 43.4% of opponent drives this season — third-worst in NFL.

The Bills ran 55.6% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field last week — third-best in NFL. Browns allowed their opponents to run64.6% of plays in their territory in Week 10 — worst in NFL.

The Browns have 8 touchdown passes this season — tied for third-fewest in NFL. The Bills have allowed 9 passing TDs this season — tied for second-fewest in NFL.

The Browns have run successful plays on 50.6% of rush attempts since Week 7 — fifth-best in NFL. Bills have allowed successful plays on 52.3% of rush attempts since Week 7 — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Browns have averaged just 0.9 passing TDs per game this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed just 1.0 passing touchdowns per game this season — tied for second-best in NFL.

Cleveland Browns Offense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Browns have gone three and out 5 times in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.

The Browns have started 8 drives inside their own 10 yard line since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.

The Browns have rushed for 16 TDs this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Browns have gone three and out on 8% of their drives in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Bills ran 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Bills have an average drive start position from the 34.1 yard line in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25.4.

The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 49% since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Bills have started 8 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.

Cleveland Browns Defense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Browns defense allowed scores on 78% of opponent drives in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

The Browns defense has allowed 15 rushing TDs this season — tied for 2nd-most in NFL.

The Browns defense did not force a three and out in Week 10 — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

65% of the plays ran against the Browns were in their own territory in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 69.2 (842 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.4.

The Bills defense allowed 12 TD passes last season — fewest in NFL.

The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

The Bills defense allowed first downs on 26% of pass attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.