Browns vs Broncos Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 13

Denver Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II (2) before an NFL football game in Empower Field at Mile High Sunday, Dec. 24, 2023, in Denver. (AP Photo/Geneva Heffernan)
(AP Photo/Geneva Heffernan)
  • The Broncos are -5.5 point favorites vs the Browns
  • Total (Over/Under): 42 points
  • Watch this game on ESPN | ESPD

The Cleveland Browns (3-8-0) visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (7-5-0) on Dec. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Denver, CO.

The Broncos are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Browns vs. Broncos Over/Under is 42 total points for the game.

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Browns vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Browns+5.5 -11042 -110+200
Broncos -5.5 -11042 -110-250

Browns vs. Broncos Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Browns will win this game with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Browns vs Broncos Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Browns will cover the spread with 55.4.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Browns players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Browns Player Prop Bets Today

  • Jerome Ford has hit the Carries Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.80 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Deshaun Watson has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • David Njoku has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Deshaun Watson has hit the Interceptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.40 Units / 70% ROI)
  • David Njoku has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.25 Units / 24% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Javonte Williams has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.65 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Bo Nix has hit the Interceptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Bo Nix has hit the Passing Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Courtland Sutton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Bo Nix has hit the Completions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.80 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.67 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+8.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.55 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.60 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.50 Units / 15% ROI)

Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns art 4-7 (-3.75 Units / -30.61% ROI).

  • Browns are 3-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.85 Units / -35.14% ROI
  • Browns are 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
  • Browns are 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / ROI

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos are 9-3 (+5.75 Units / 43.56% ROI).

  • Broncos are 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.35 Units / 25.85% ROI
  • Broncos are 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
  • Broncos are 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Browns were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.

The Browns are 2-8 (.200) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .438.

The Browns were undefeated (5-0) when leading at the end of first quarter last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .737.

The Browns are 7-1 (.875) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns

The Broncos are 15-5 (.750) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Browns have turned the ball over 54 times since the 2023 season — most in NFL.

The Broncos were 1-7 (.125) when not forcing a fumble last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.

The Broncos are 1-9 (.100) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .382.

The Broncos are winless (0-4) when throwing 2 or more interceptions since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .188.

Additional Matchup Notes for Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos have run successful plays on just 24.6% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Browns have pressured opposing QBs on 30.7% of passing plays this season — best in NFL.

The Broncos have run successful plays on just 41.9% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Browns have allowed successful plays on just 46.1% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Broncos have scored on 16.7% of their drives in the first quarter this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Browns defense has allowed scores on 15.6% of opponent drives in the first quarter this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Browns have scored on 26.2% of their drives this season — worst in NFL. The Broncos defense has allowed scores on 31.3% of opponent drives this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Browns have run successful plays on just 39.0% of pass attempts this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on just 42.6% of pass attempts this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Browns have been successful on just 28.0% of plays they have run against a light front this season — worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 26.9% of plays with a light front this season — best in NFL.

Cleveland Browns Offense: Important Stats

The Browns have averaged 0.00 epa per play against open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.40.

The Browns have averaged -0.36 epa per play on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.

The Browns have averaged -0.25 epa per play on motion plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.

The Browns have averaged -0.50 epa per play on motion plays since Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.02.

Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats

The Broncos targeted RBs 29% of the time (150 Pass Attempts/513 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Broncos have targeted RBs 24% of the time (222 Pass Attempts/915 plays) since the 2023 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Broncos have run successful plays on 11% of pass attempts against a light rush this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Broncos have gone three and out 26 times in the 3rd quarter since the 2023 season — most in NFL.

Cleveland Browns Defense: Important Stats

The Browns defense allowed -0.11 epa per play first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.20.

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 11% of pass attempts on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 33%.

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 35% of pass attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats

The Broncos defense allowed a passer rating of 135.6 against play action passes (123 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 101.1.

The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 24% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 36% of plays on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Broncos defense have allowed -0.23 epa per play with a light front this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.