Browns vs Steelers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

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Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin works during the first half of an NFL football game against the Atlanta Falcons, Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, in Atlanta. The Pittsburgh Steelers won 19-16.
(AP Photo/Danny Karnik)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 06, 2023, 4:15 PM
  • The Steelers (8-8) are -2.5 point favorites vs the Browns (7-9)
  • Total (Over/Under): 40.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Cleveland Browns (7-9) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8) on Jan. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Pittsburgh.

The Steelers are betting favorites in Week 18, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Browns vs. Steelers Over/Under is 40.5 total points for the game.

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Browns vs. Steelers Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 18

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Browns+2.5 -11040.5 -110+120
Steelers -2.5 -11040.5 -110-145

Browns vs. Steelers Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Steelers will win this Week 18 game with 65.8% confidence.

Browns vs Steelers Spread Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread this Week 18 with 61.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Browns and Steelers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Browns Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Browns players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jacoby Brissett has hit the Completions Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Jacoby Brissett has hit the Passing Yards Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Amari Cooper has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Donovan Peoples-Jones has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+5.75 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Donovan Peoples-Jones has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)

Best Steelers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kenny Pickett has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.45 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Kenny Pickett has hit the Interceptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Pat Freiermuth has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.25 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Kenny Pickett has hit the Pass Attempts Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Kenny Pickett has hit the Completions Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 75% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Steelers vs Browns

Player Name Over Under
Najee Harris 12.5 -115 12.5 -115
Pat Freiermuth 41.5 -110 41.5 -120
George Pickens 37.5 -120 37.5 -110
Amari Cooper 63.5 -115 63.5 -115
Diontae Johnson 52.5 -115 52.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Steelers vs Browns

Player Name Over Under
Najee Harris 71.5 -115 71.5 -115
Kenny Pickett 15.5 -120 15.5 -110
Jaylen Warren 27.5 -120 27.5 -110
Nick Chubb 70.5 -115 70.5 -115
Deshaun Watson 18.5 -120 18.5 -110
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+10.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have scored first in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.35 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.85 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+6.45 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+5.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.50 Units / 28% ROI)

Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns have gone 8-8 (-0.95 Units / -5.43% ROI).

  • Browns are 7-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -16.49% ROI
  • Browns are 7-8 when betting the Over for -1.8 Units / -10.23% ROI
  • Browns are 8-7 when betting the Under for +0.3 Units / ROI

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers have gone 9-6 (+2.4 Units / 13.71% ROI).

  • Steelers are 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 21.31% ROI
  • Steelers are 6-10 when betting the Over for -5 Units / -28.41% ROI
  • Steelers are 10-6 when betting the Under for +3.4 Units / 19.32% ROI

Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Browns are winless (0-9) when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .336.

The Browns are winless (0-3) when allowing 250 or more passing yards this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .480.

The Browns are winless (0-3) when rushing at least 4 yards less than 5 times in a game this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .351.

The Browns are 1-8 (.111) when allowing 22 or more points this season — 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .277.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns

The Steelers are winless (0-5) when committing 2 or more turnovers this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .296.

The Steelers are winless (0-2) when losing at least one fumble this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .387.

The Steelers are 1-7 (.125) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .433.

The Steelers are undefeated (7-0) when leading at the end of first quarter this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .601.

Additional Matchup Notes for Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have a third down conversion rate of 33.3% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since Week 14 — fifth-best in NFL. The Browns defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 33.3% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since Week 14 — third-worst in NFL.

The Browns have run successful plays on 36.7% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — fifth-best in NFL. The Steelers have pressured opposing QBs on just 18.5% of passing plays this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Browns have rushed the ball on just 32.6% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone since Week 14 — fourth-lowest in NFL. The Steelers have allowed 1 rushing touchdown in the Red Zone since Week 14 — tied for third-fewest in NFL.

The Browns have gone three and out on 42.1% of their drives in the first half since Week 14 — worst in NFL. Steelers have forced three and outs on 31.6% of opponent drives in the first half since Week 14 — fourth-best in NFL.

Cleveland Browns Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Browns have started 4 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 2nd half since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.

The Browns have gone three and out 5 times in the 1st quarter since Week 14 — most in NFL.

The Browns are averaging 19.0 drives per TD in the 1st half since Week 14 — 2nd-worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.8.

The Browns have started 4 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 1st quarter since Week 14 — 2nd-most in NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Steelers are averaging 20.5 drives per TD in the 3rd quarter this season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.

The Steelers ran the ball on 27% of plays (39 carries/144 plays) in the red zone last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Steelers are averaging 11.7 drives per TD in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.

The Steelers ran 22% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

Cleveland Browns Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Browns defense has stuffed 44% (4/9) of rushing attempts on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Browns defense allowed a passer rating of just 31.4 (28 Pass Attempts) in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 88.2.

The Browns defense has allowed successful plays on 21% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter since Week 14 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Browns defense has allowed a passer rating of just 55.2 (106 Pass Attempts) since Week 14 — best in NFL; League Avg: 87.6.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Steelers defense allowed 20+ yard rushes 24 times last season — most in NFL.

The Steelers defense has allowed 6 rushing TDs on 60 carries (10 Carries Per TD) in the red zone this season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.

The Steelers defense sacked opponents 55 times last season — most in NFL.

The Steelers defense has allowed 12.3 yards per completion (3,836 yards/313 completions) this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 11.0.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.