Browns vs Steelers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

BetMGM Betting Oct 08, 2025, 10:11 PM

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Pittsburgh Steelers fans wave their Terrible Towels during the first half of an NFL football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

The Steelers are -5.5 point favorites vs the Browns
Total (Over/Under): 38.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Cleveland Browns (1-4-0) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1-0) on Oct. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.

The Steelers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Browns vs. Steelers Over/Under is 38.5 total points for the game.

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Browns vs. Steelers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Browns	+5.5 -110	38.5 -110	225
Steelers	-5.5 -110	38.5 -110	-275

Browns vs. Steelers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Steelers will win this game with 67.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Browns vs Steelers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Browns will cover the spread with 59.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Browns players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Browns Player Prop Bets Today

Jerome Ford has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 31% ROI)
David Njoku has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 7 away games (+3.50 Units / 46% ROI)
Jerome Ford has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 13 games (+2.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Jerome Ford has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 7 away games (+2.75 Units / 34% ROI)
Andre Szmyt has hit the Field Goals Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 34% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Steelers Player Prop Best Bets Today

DK Metcalf has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.00 Units / 62% ROI)
Jonnu Smith has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.10 Units / 32% ROI)
DK Metcalf has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 56% ROI)
Calvin Austin III has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 36% ROI)
Jaylen Warren has hit the Carries Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+3.55 Units / 22% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Steelers vs Browns

Player Name	Over	Under
Jerry Jeudy (CLE)	38.5 -115	38.5 -115
David Njoku (CLE)	34.5 -118	34.5 -110
Isaiah Bond (CLE)	27.5 -115	27.5 -115
Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE)	23.5 -140	23.5 +105
Jonnu Smith (PIT)	24.5 -115	24.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Steelers vs Browns

Player Name	Over	Under
Quinshon Judkins (CLE)	79.5 -115	79.5 -115
Jaylen Warren (PIT)	51.5 +115	51.5 -150
Dillon Gabriel (CLE)	12.5 -115	12.5 -115

Browns Best Bets:

The Cleveland Browns have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.55 Units / 38% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.87 Units / 52% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.70 Units / 11% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.60 Units / 17% ROI)

Steelers Best Bets:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.75 Units / 41% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.50 Units / 16% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.05 Units / 19% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+3.85 Units / 19% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.60 Units / 37% ROI)

Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns are 2-3 (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).

Browns are 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -12% ROI
Browns are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
Browns are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / ROI

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers are 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.65% ROI).

Steelers are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 22.81% ROI
Steelers are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Steelers are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI

Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers defense has allowed a passer rating of 111.2 when the opposing QB has scrambled (11 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 53.3.

The Steelers defense has not forced a three and out in the 1st half this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Steelers defense has allowed successful plays on 60% of pass attempts with a base front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Steelers defense has allowed 3.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (179 yards / 50 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns

The Steelers have converted late downs on just 1 of 48 plays (2%) with 4-6 yards to go this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Steelers have averaged -0.24 epa per play at home this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.04.

The Steelers have averaged 8.1 yards per play on contested throws since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.

The Steelers have been flagged 7 times on offense this season — fewest in NFL.

Additional Matchup Notes for Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers