Buccaneers vs Giants Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 12

min read
Giants player number 8 holding a NFL game ball.
(AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 24, 2024, 11:20 AM
  • The Buccaneers are -5.5 point favorites vs the Giants
  • Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
  • Watch this game on CBS

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6-0) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants (2-8-0) on Nov. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in East Rutherford, NJ.

The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Buccaneers vs. Giants Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Giants vs Buccaneers & all NFL games with BetMGM

Buccaneers vs. Giants Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Buccaneers-5.5 -11041.5 -110-250
Giants +5.5 -11041.5 -110+200

Buccaneers vs. Giants Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this game with 68.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Buccaneers vs Giants Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 64.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


Bet now on Giants vs Buccaneers and all NFL games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today

  • Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+10.25 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Bucky Irving has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Baker Mayfield has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.65 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+4.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Rachaad White has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.55 Units / 38% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Giants players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Darius Slayton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Darius Slayton has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Devin Singletary has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.75 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Wan’Dale Robinson has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Theo Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games (+5.45 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.90 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.23 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in their last 5 away games (+5.20 Units / 95% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored first in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The New York Giants have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+4.22 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The New York Giants have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New York Giants have covered the 2Q Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Giants have scored last in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.35 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The New York Giants have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.70 Units / 16% ROI)

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers art 6-4 (+1.6 Units / 14.48% ROI).

  • Buccaneers are 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -11.57% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / ROI

Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Giants are 3-7 (-4.65 Units / -42.47% ROI).

  • Giants are 2-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -5 Units / -41.67% ROI
  • Giants are 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.75 Units / -42.99% ROI
  • Giants are 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / 33.79% ROI

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Giants

The Buccaneers are winless (0-11) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .151.

The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .276.

The Buccaneers were 1-6 (.143) when losing at least one fumble last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .382.

The Buccaneers were 5-2 (.714) when forcing at least one fumble last season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .618.

New York Giants: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Giants were 3-6 (.333) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.

The Giants are winless (0-5) at home this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .516.

The Giants are 4-7 (.364) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.

The Giants are 3-5 (.375) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .749.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants

The Giants have averaged just -0.20 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed just -0.11 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Giants have run successful plays on just 33.3% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed successful plays on just 40.6% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.

Giants WRs have averaged 24.2 targets per game this season — 3rd-highest in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 13.9 receptions per game to WRs this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 54.2% of pass attempts against a base front this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Giants have allowed successful plays on 52.3% of pass attempts with a base front this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 62.5% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Giants have allowed successful plays on 59.4% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 52.6% of pass attempts with motion since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Giants have allowed successful plays on 50.8% of pass attempts against motion since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 52% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 26% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts against a base front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Buccaneers have thrown for 24 TDs this season — 3rd-most in NFL.

New York Giants Offense: Important Stats

The Giants averaged -0.26 epa per play against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

Giants QBs were sacked 85 times last season — most in NFL.

The Giants have been sacked on 12% of pass attempts (115/983) since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

The Giants have averaged -0.31 epa per play on play action passes this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.07.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed successful plays on 74% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

The Buccaneers defense allowed an average of 1.4 yards after contact per carry (412 carries) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

The Buccaneers defense allowed -0.16 epa per play with a stacked front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

New York Giants Defense: Important Stats

The Giants defense have allowed 0.61 epa per play with a stacked front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.

Offenses facing the Giants targeted TEs 15% of the time (42 Pass Attempts/275 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Giants defense allowed 6.8 yards per dropback (1,053 yards/156 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

The Giants defense has allowed a passer rating of 158.3 with a stacked front (5 Pass Attempts) this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 109.9.

Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Giants vs Buccaneers and all NFL games with BetMGM

More NFL Betting Predictions:

More NFL Odds at BetMGM

Take your football entertainment to the next level with NFL betting at the online sportsbook.

From futures like Chiefs Super Bowl odds, Lions odds to win the division, or Ravens playoff odds, to weekly odds like spreads, moneylines, and over/under totals, thereโ€™s something for everyone.

And with the best sportsbook promotions, you could land a welcome offer, sports betting Odds Boost, or a Parlay Boost! You can also check out NFL picks and predictions and updated Super Bowl predictions throughout the year.

Log in to your BetMGM account today โ€” or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app โ€” to start betting!

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.