Buccaneers vs Lions Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 7

BetMGM Betting Oct 15, 2025, 6:49 PM

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General view as the Seattle Seahawks kick a point after against the Detroit Lions during an NFL football game at Ford Field in Detroit, Sunday, Oct. 28, 2018.

(AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)

The Lions are -5.5 point favorites vs the Buccaneers
Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
Watch this game on ABC | ESPN | ESPD

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1-0) visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions (4-2-0) on Oct. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Detroit, MI.

The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Buccaneers vs. Lions Over/Under is 52.5 total points for the game.

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Buccaneers vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Buccaneers	+5.5 -110	52.5 -110	200
Lions	-5.5 -110	52.5 -110	-250

Buccaneers vs. Lions Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 67.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Buccaneers vs Lions Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 54.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today

Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.70 Units / 39% ROI)
Bucky Irving has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.38 Units / 43% ROI)
Sterling Shepard has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+4.70 Units / 50% ROI)
Rachaad White has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 42% ROI)
Baker Mayfield has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today

Jared Goff has hit the TD Passes Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 24% ROI)
Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.00 Units / 27% ROI)
David Montgomery has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 28% ROI)
Jared Goff has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+4.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Jared Goff has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+4.20 Units / 48% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Lions vs Buccaneers

Player Name	Over	Under
Rachaad White (TB)	21.5 -120	21.5 -110
Cade Otton (TB)	40.5 -118	40.5 -115
Sam LaPorta (DET)	47.5 -115	47.5 -115
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)	76.5 -115	76.5 -115
Jameson Williams (DET)	43.5 -115	43.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Lions vs Buccaneers

Player Name	Over	Under
Baker Mayfield (TB)	20.5 -118	20.5 -110
Rachaad White (TB)	49.5 -118	49.5 -110
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)	63.5 -115	63.5 -115
David Montgomery (DET)	46.5 -110	46.5 -118

Buccaneers Best Bets:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+10.15 Units / 40% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.45 Units / 35% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.05 Units / 29% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.62 Units / 25% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.30 Units / 27% ROI)

Lions Best Bets:

The Detroit Lions have covered the 3Q Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.75 Units / 39% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.95 Units / 27% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.95 Units / 18% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.50 Units / 24% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.85 Units / 17% ROI)

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers are 4-2 (+1.8 Units / 27.69% ROI).

Buccaneers are 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.9 Units / 54.14% ROI
Buccaneers are 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI
Buccaneers are 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.4 Units / ROI

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions are 4-2 (+1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI).

Lions are 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 18.46% ROI
Lions are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
Lions are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Lions have started 12 drives inside opposing territory this season — most in NFL.

The Lions have scored 7 TDs from their own territory since the 2024 season — most in NFL.

The Lions have run successful plays on 56% of pass attempts in the 1st half since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Lions have averaged 0.20 epa per play on motion plays since the 2024 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Lions defense has allowed 5 TDs on first drive of the game this season — most in NFL.

The Lions defense have allowed 11.6 yards per play open coverage this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 9.1.

76% of the plays ran against the Lions were in their own territory in Week 6 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Lions defense allowed successful plays on 85% of pass attempts open coverage in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 61%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions