Buccaneers vs. Patriots: NFL Week 10 Odds, Prediction

New England looks to stay atop the AFC East with a Week 10 trip to Tampa Bay. 

The Patriots improved to 7-2 with a 24-23 win over the Falcons. Mike Vrabel’s team failed to cover the spread as a 5.5-point home favorite, but earned a sixth straight win. 

Tampa Bay had its bye in Week 9 and kept its spot as the NFC South leaders. This season, only Philadelphia and Detroit have captured outright victories over the Buccaneers. 

Bet on Buccaneers vs. Patriots and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

Buccaneers vs. Patriots: NFL Week 10 Odds

Buccaneers vs. Patriots Prediction

Based on Tampa Bay’s defensive struggles against good passing teams and massive luck this year, my Buccaneers vs Patriots prediction is the Patriots Spread (+2.5, -110). 

I worry immensely about picking against a Tampa Bay team coming off a bye. Also, the Bucs passing game (15th in DVOA) holds a massive advantage over New England (28th on defense). 

That said, Todd Bowles’ defense has struggled this season against good passing attacks. 

Tampa Bay ranks seventh in pass defense DVOA, but sits 20th in dropback success rate. Here’s a breakdown of their dropback success rates by week: 

• Weeks 1-3: 25th
• Weeks 4-7: 27th
• Week 8 (New Orleans): 5th

Let’s focus on the middle sample. That rates out as the hardest stretch for Tampa Bay’s defense with three games against top-10 passing units by DVOA. 

Both of Tampa Bay’s losses – at Detroit, vs. Philadelphia – came in that sample.  Now, they play a Patriots offense third in pass offense DVOA. 

Tampa Bay’s lone win against a good passing offense – at Seattle – came because the Bucs scored 38 against an injury-riddled Seahawks secondary. 

Most recently, the Bucs earned a 23-3 win over the Saints despite 212 yards of offense. Injuries remain a concern for this team, which has massively overperformed expectations. 

Tampa Bay enters this game 7-2 with the point differential of a 4.5-3.5 team. Injuries have contributed to that record, but Tampa Bay has only won by three or more twice this season. 

Lastly, the number is a bit of a head scratcher. 

In Week 2, the Patriots closed a two-point road dog to Miami. Are we actually saying the Bucs are only a half-point better than the Dolphins? 

Positive injury news on Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving could change my opinion. As it stands, it’s the Patriots or pass on Sunday’s game. 

Betting Buccaneers vs. Patriots: NFL Public Betting

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