Chargers vs Colts Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 16, MNF

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 23, 2022, 10:30 AM
  • The Chargers (8-6) are -4 point favorites vs the Colts (4-9)
  • Total (Over/Under): 47 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (4-9) on Dec. 26. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Indianapolis for Monday Night Football.

The Chargers are betting favorites in Week 16, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Chargers vs. Colts Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.

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Chargers vs. Colts Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 16

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Chargers-4.5 -11045.5 -110-210
Colts +4.5 -11045.5 -110+170

Chargers vs. Colts Prediction for Week 16

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chargers will win this Week 16 game with 69.3% confidence.

Chargers vs Colts Spread Prediction for Week 16

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chargers will cover the spread this Week 16 with 62.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Chargers and Colts, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Justin Herbert has hit the Completions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Gerald Everett has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.80 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Austin Ekeler has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Austin Ekeler has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.20 Units / 29% ROI)

Best Colts Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Colts players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Pittman has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.95 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 76% ROI)
  • Parris Campbell has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Alec Pierce has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 50% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Colts vs Chargers

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Austin Ekeler +400
Keenan Allen +750
Zack Moss +800
Mike Williams +800
Deon Jackson +900

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Colts vs Chargers

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Austin Ekeler -200
Zack Moss -115
Deon Jackson +100
Keenan Allen +120
Mike Williams +125

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Colts vs Chargers

Player Name Over Under
Michael Pittman Jr. 65.5 -115 65.5 -115
Alec Pierce 40.5 -115 40.5 -115
Parris Campbell 36.5 -120 36.5 -110
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.35 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+9.05 Units / 83% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.75 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.90 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.65 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.55 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.25 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 3Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.05 Units / 41% ROI)

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers have gone 8-5 (+2.5 Units / 16.39% ROI).

  • Chargers are 8-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.45 Units / -2.07% ROI
  • Chargers are 5-8 when betting the Over for -3.8 Units / -24.68% ROI
  • Chargers are 8-5 when betting the Under for +2.5 Units / ROI

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts have gone 6-8 (-2.65 Units / -17.49% ROI).

  • Colts are 4-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.35 Units / -27.94% ROI
  • Colts are 5-9 when betting the Over for -4.9 Units / -31.82% ROI
  • Colts are 9-5 when betting the Under for +3.5 Units / 22.73% ROI

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Chargers are 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs this season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .568.

The Chargers are undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 22 points this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .712.

The Chargers are 7-2 (.778) when favorites this season — tied for 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .643.

The Chargers are 5-3 (.625) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter this season — tied for 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .496.

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The Colts are 1-4-1 (.167) when favorites this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .643.

The Colts are 3-9-1 (.231) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .471.

The Colts are 2-9 (.182) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game this season — 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .429.

The Colts are 2-5 (.286) when not forcing a fumble this season — tied for 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .432.

Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have a third down conversion rate of just 9.1% in the fourth quarter since Week 12 — second-worst in NFL. The Chargers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 21.4% in the 4th quarter since Week 12 — fifth-best in NFL.

Colts WRs averaged just 2.2 yards after the catch last week — fifth-worst in NFL. The Chargers allowed just 1.8 yards after catch per reception to WRs in Week 14 — best in NFL.

Chargers WRs have been targeted 104 times since Week 12 — fourth-most in NFL. The Colts have allowed an average of 31.1 fantasy points per game to WRs since Week 12 — second-worst in NFL.

Chargers WRs have averaged 26.0 targets per game since Week 12 — fourth-highest in NFL. The Colts have allowed 15.7 receptions per game to WRs since Week 12 — fourth-worst in NFL.

Chargers WRs have 73 receptions in 4 games (18.2 per game) since Week 12 — second-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed 15.7 receptions per game to WRs since Week 12 — fourth-worst in NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Chargers averaged 121.6 yards from scrimmage per game (2,067 yards / 17 games) in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 94.8.

The Chargers have not recorded a TD in 12 drives in the 3rd quarter since Week 12 of the 2021 Season — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.

The Chargers faced a blitz 26 times in Week 14 — most in NFL.

The Chargers had a third down conversion rate of 35% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Colts are averaging 11.7 drives per TD in the 1st half this season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.7.

The Colts averaged 16.0 drives per TD in Week 15 — 2nd-worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.8.

The Colts have not recorded a TD in 13 drives in the 4th quarter since Week 12 of the 2021 Season — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.0.

The Colts have run 32% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter since Week 12 of the 2021 Season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Chargers defense has allowed an average of 2.2 yards after contact per carry (871 carries) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

The Chargers defense has allowed successful plays on 61% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Chargers defense has stuffed 35% (9/26) of rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Chargers defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 57% in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Colts defense allowed a passer rating of just 47.5 on 3rd and short (36 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 98.4.

The Colts defense has allowed 23.7 points per game to opposing offenses (71 points / 3 games) in the 2nd half since Week 12 of the 2021 Season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10.3.

The Colts defense has allowed an average of 32.2 fantasy points per game as a unit to RBs since Week 12 of the 2021 Season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 17.9.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.