- The Chargers are -4.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins
- Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Los Angeles Chargers (3-2-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (1-4-0) on Oct. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Miami, FL.
The Chargers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-105).
The Chargers vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.
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Chargers vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chargers | -4.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -220 |
| Dolphins | +4.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | 180 |
Chargers vs. Dolphins Prediction
The winning team model predicts the will win this game with confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chargers vs Dolphins Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the will cover the spread with confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today
- Cameron Dicker has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+5.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+5.15 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ladd McConkey has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Interceptions Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+4.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+4.10 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Devon Achane has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Nick Westbrook has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Malik Washington has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Interceptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Malik Washington has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.96 Units / 29% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Dolphins vs Chargers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane (MIA) | 32.5 -115 | 32.5 -115 |
| Keenan Allen (LAC) | 54.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 55.5 -110 | 55.5 -118 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 56.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 |
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | 67.5 -118 | 67.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Dolphins vs Chargers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane (MIA) | 59.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 |
Chargers Best Bets:
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+4.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.61 Units / 21% ROI)
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.08 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers are 3-2 (+0.8 Units / 14.29% ROI).
- Chargers are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -10.92% ROI
- Chargers are 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
- Chargers are 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / ROI
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 2-3 (-1.3 Units / -23.21% ROI).
- Dolphins are 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.55 Units / -58.2% ROI
- Dolphins are 4-1 when betting the Over for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
- Dolphins are 1-4 when betting the Under for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Chargers have thrown the ball 22% of the time (18 Pass Attempts/83 plays) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Chargers have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chargers have started 16 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 1st half since the 2024 season — most in NFL.
The Chargers have run the ball on 77% of plays (64 carries/83 plays) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
Dolphins are 7-1 (.875) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns (6th-best in NFL) and just .077 when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2024 season (4th-worst in NFL).
The Dolphins are 1-4 (.200) this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .494.
The Dolphins are 1-4 (.200) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Dolphins are 1-11 (.083) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2024 season — T-5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .255.
Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins
Dolphins are 7-1 (.875) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns (6th-best in NFL) and just .077 when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2024 season (4th-worst in NFL).
The Dolphins are 1-4 (.200) this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .494.
The Dolphins are 1-4 (.200) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Dolphins are 1-11 (.083) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2024 season — T-5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .255.
The Chargers have thrown the ball 22% of the time (18 Pass Attempts/83 plays) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Chargers have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chargers have started 16 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 1st half since the 2024 season — most in NFL.
The Chargers have run the ball on 77% of plays (64 carries/83 plays) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats
The Chargers have thrown the ball 22% of the time (18 Pass Attempts/83 plays) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Chargers have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chargers have started 16 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 1st half since the 2024 season — most in NFL.
The Chargers have run the ball on 77% of plays (64 carries/83 plays) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
Dolphins are 7-1 (.875) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns (6th-best in NFL) and just .077 when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2024 season (4th-worst in NFL).
The Dolphins are 1-4 (.200) this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .494.
The Dolphins are 1-4 (.200) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Dolphins are 1-11 (.083) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2024 season — T-5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .255.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats
The Chargers have thrown the ball 22% of the time (18 Pass Attempts/83 plays) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Chargers have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chargers have started 16 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 1st half since the 2024 season — most in NFL.
The Chargers have run the ball on 77% of plays (64 carries/83 plays) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
Dolphins are 7-1 (.875) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns (6th-best in NFL) and just .077 when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2024 season (4th-worst in NFL).
The Dolphins are 1-4 (.200) this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .494.
The Dolphins are 1-4 (.200) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Dolphins are 1-11 (.083) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2024 season — T-5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .255.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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