Chargers vs Falcons Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 13

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) catches a pass for a touchdown during the second half of an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints, Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023, in Atlanta. The Atlanta Falcons won 24-15. (AP Photo/Danny Karnik)
(AP Photo/Danny Karnik)
  • The Chargers are -1 point favorites vs the Falcons
  • Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
  • Watch this game on CBS

The Los Angeles Chargers (7-4-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (6-5-0) on Dec. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Atlanta, GA.

The Chargers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1 (-120).

The Chargers vs. Falcons Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Falcons vs Chargers & all NFL games with BetMGM

Chargers vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Chargers-1 -12047.5 -105-125
Falcons +1 -11047.5 -115+105

Chargers vs. Falcons Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chargers will win this game with 70.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Chargers vs Falcons Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 55.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


Bet now on Falcons vs Chargers and all NFL games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today

  • Will Dissly has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.75 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the Completions Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.05 Units / 41% ROI)
  • D.J. Chark has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the Interceptions Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+6.20 Units / 32% ROI)
  • J.K. Dobbins has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Kirk Cousins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.25 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Kirk Cousins has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Bijan Robinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.65 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Kirk Cousins has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+3.35 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 21 games (+3.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.25 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.90 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.00 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.10 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+1.05 Units / 11% ROI)

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers art 7-3 (+3.7 Units / 30.58% ROI).

  • Chargers are 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 14.4% ROI
  • Chargers are 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
  • Chargers are 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / ROI

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 5-6 (-1.7 Units / -13.82% ROI).

  • Falcons are 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -2.92% ROI
  • Falcons are 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
  • Falcons are 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Chargers were winless (0-9) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.

The Chargers are undefeated (6-0) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .635.

The Chargers were 1-8 (.111) when not forcing a fumble last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.

The Chargers are 1-8 (.111) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The Falcons are undefeated (3-0) vs top 10 offenses this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .366.

The Falcons were 1-5 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.

The Falcons were 2-5 (.286) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game last season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .443.

The Falcons are undefeated (3-0) when forcing at least one fumble this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .589.

Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have a third down conversion rate of just 13.2% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Chargers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 11.9% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL.

The Falcons have a third down conversion rate of just 10.0% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Chargers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 8.7% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Falcons have averaged 0.54 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 0.24 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The Chargers have gone three and out on 30.6% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — worst in NFL. The Falcons have forced three and outs on 30.3% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL.

The Chargers have run successful plays on just 34.4% of pass attempts against a light front this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Falcons have pressured opposing QBs on 35.7% of pass attempts with a light front this season — 5th-best in NFL.

Chargers RBs have averaged just 6.4 yards after the catch this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Falcons have allowed just 6.9 yards after catch per reception to RBs this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats

The Chargers have thrown the ball 18% of the time (6 Pass Attempts/34 plays) on 3rd and short this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Chargers ran successful plays on 29% of pass attempts against a stacked front last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Chargers have run successful plays on 21% of rush attempts against a light front this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Chargers have committed 4 turnovers this season — fewest in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats

The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Falcons have averaged 0.54 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.06.

The Falcons targeted TEs 33% of the time (174 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Falcons committed 6 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats

The Chargers defense has allowed successful plays on 19% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Chargers defense has allowed scores on 18% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

The Chargers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 45.8 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.

The Chargers defense has allowed successful plays on 39% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats

The Falcons defense has averaged a sack every 38.7 pass attempts (387 Pass Attempts/10 Sacks) this season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 13.9.

The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (10/387) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 14% of pass attempts (10/72) when they have pressured the QB this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 33%.

The Falcons defense has allowed successful plays on 72% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Falcons vs Chargers and all NFL games with BetMGM

More NFL Betting Predictions:

More NFL Odds at BetMGM

Take your football entertainment to the next level with NFL betting at the online sportsbook.

From futures like Chiefs Super Bowl odds, Lions odds to win the division, or Ravens playoff odds, to weekly odds like spreads, moneylines, and over/under totals, there’s something for everyone.

And with the best sportsbook promotions, you could land a welcome offer, sports betting Odds Boost, or a Parlay Boost! You can also check out NFL picks and predictions and updated Super Bowl predictions throughout the year.

Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!

About the Author

BetMGM

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.