Chargers vs Falcons Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 9

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Marcus Mariota QB Atlanta Falcons
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 01, 2022, 2:57 PM
  • The Chargers (4-3) are -3 point favorites vs the Falcons (4-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 49 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (4-4) on Nov. 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Chargers are betting favorites in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).

The Chargers vs. Falcons Over/Under is 49 total points for the game.

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Chargers vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 9

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Chargers-3 -11549 -110-165
Falcons +3 -10549 -110+140

Chargers vs. Falcons Prediction for Week 9

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chargers will win this Week 9 game with 58.8% confidence.

Chargers vs Falcons Spread Prediction for Week 9

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread this Week 9 with 52.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Chargers and Falcons, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for Week 9, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Gerald Everett has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.45 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the Completions Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.10 Units / 73% ROI)
  • DeAndre Carter has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 away games (+6.10 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the Passing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.00 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Austin Ekeler has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)

Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for Week 9, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.35 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.25 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Drake London has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Anthony Firkser has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 76% ROI)
  • Marcus Mariota has hit the Completions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2Q Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.40 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have scored last in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.75 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.75 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.85 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+5.55 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have scored last in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.40 Units / 71% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.85 Units / 40% ROI)

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers have gone 4-3 (+0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI).

  • Chargers are 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -14.61% ROI
  • Chargers are 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
  • Chargers are 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / ROI

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons have gone 6-2 (+3.85 Units / 44% ROI).

  • Falcons are 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 7.1% ROI
  • Falcons are 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
  • Falcons are 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Chargers are winless (0-1) when allowing 3 or more sacks this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .396.

The Chargers are undefeated (3-0) when not throwing an interception this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .641.

The Chargers are 5-3 (.625) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .740.

The Chargers are 6-2 (.750) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2021 season — tied for 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .613.

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The Falcons are winless (0-4) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .624.

The Falcons are 2-7 (.222) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2020 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .652.

The Falcons are 3-1 (.750) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — tied for 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .570.

The Falcons were 2-6 (.250) vs top 10 defenses last season — tied for 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .447.

Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have gone three and out on 13.3% of their drives this season — fourth-best in NFL. Chargers have forced three and outs on 13.9% of opponent drives this season — worst in NFL.

The Falcons have scored on 43.5% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — fifth-best in NFL. The Chargers defense has allowed scores on 39.1% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

The Falcons have rushed the ball on 56.3% of plays from scrimmage this season — second-highest in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 5.9 yards per carry this season — tied for worst in NFL.

The Chargers have thrown for 2,009 passing yards in 7 games (287.0 YPG) this season — fifth-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 306.9 passing yards per game this season — worst in NFL.

Chargers QBs have been 10 sacked this season — fewest in NFL. The Falcons have sacked the quarterback 12 times this season — tied for third-fewest in NFL.

The Chargers have thrown the ball 63.5% of the time this season — second-highest in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 7.7 yards per dropback this season — tied for second-worst in NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats for Week 9

The Chargers had a third down conversion rate of 35% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Chargers are averaging 21.0 drives per TD in close and late situations this season — 2nd-worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.8.

The Chargers have targeted RBs 27% of the time (83 Pass Attempts/308 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

The Chargers have converted first downs on just 19 of 98 plays (19%) in close and late situations this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats for Week 9

The Falcons have run the ball on 56% of plays (262 carries/465 plays) this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Falcons have thrown the ball 27% of the time (57 Pass Attempts/211 plays) on 1st down this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Falcons have thrown the ball 38% of the time (178 Pass Attempts/465 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

The Falcons have run successful plays on 59% of pass attempts in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats for Week 9

The Chargers defense has allowed an average of 3.1 yards after contact per carry (163 carries) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.6.

The Chargers defense has allowed an average of 3.3 yards after contact per carry (147 carries) to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

The Chargers defense has allowed an average of 2.4 yards after contact per carry (662 carries) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

The Chargers defense allowed first downs on 49% of plays on 3rd down last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats for Week 9

The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (30/925) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Falcons defense averaged a sack every 32.9 pass attempts (593 Pass Attempts/18 Sacks) last season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 16.1.

The Falcons defense has averaged a sack every 30.8 pass attempts (925 Pass Attempts/30 Sacks) since the 2021 season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 15.8.

The Falcons defense allowed 9 receptions for 20+ yards in Week 7 — most in NFL.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.