- The Patriots are -3.5 point favorites vs the Chargers
- Total (Over/Under): 46 points
- Watch this game on NBC | PEAC | NBCU
The Los Angeles Chargers visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots on Jan. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Foxborough, MA.
The Patriots are betting favorites in this Wild Card Playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).
The Chargers vs. Patriots Over/Under is 46 total points for the game.
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Chargers vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under
Chargers vs. Patriots Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this playoff game with 64.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chargers vs Patriots Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chargers will cover the spread with 55.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Patriots vs Chargers
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | +3300 |
| Omarion Hampton (LAC) | +800 |
| Kimani Vidal (LAC) | +1200 |
| Hassan Haskins (LAC) | +6600 |
| Keenan Allen (LAC) | +1700 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Patriots vs Chargers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 43.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 |
| TreVeyon Henderson (NE) | 10.5 -115 | 10.5 -118 |
| Stefon Diggs (NE) | 55.5 -118 | 55.5 -110 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 10.5 -110 | 10.5 -120 |
| Demario Douglas (NE) | 16.5 -115 | 16.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Patriots vs Chargers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 38.5 -110 | 38.5 -118 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | 24.5 -110 | 24.5 -118 |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 30.5 -115 | 30.5 -115 |
| TreVeyon Henderson (NE) | 53.5 -110 | 53.5 -118 |
Chargers Best Bets:
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+4.53 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.60 Units / 25% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 16 games (+15.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 17 games (+15.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 15 games (+10.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+8.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)
Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers are 9-8 (+0.2 Units / 1.07% ROI).
- Chargers are 11-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.3 Units / 10.02% ROI
- Chargers are 7-10 when betting the Over for -4 Units / -21.39% ROI
- Chargers are 10-7 when betting the Under for +2.3 Units / ROI
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 12-5 (+6.5 Units / 35.04% ROI).
- Patriots are 14-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.15 Units / 26.75% ROI
- Patriots are 11-6 when betting the Over for +4.4 Units / 23.53% ROI
- Patriots are 6-11 when betting the Under for -6.1 Units / -32.62% ROI
Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Patriots are undefeated (8-0) on the road this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .463.
The Patriots are 11-1 (.917) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .508.
The Patriots are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .580.
The Patriots are 11-2 (.846) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .414.
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 15% on 3rd and long this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
Only 10% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
38% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 1st half in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Patriots defense has allowed first downs on 30% of pass attempts on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 15% on 3rd and long this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
Only 10% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
38% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 1st half in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Patriots defense has allowed first downs on 30% of pass attempts on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
The Patriots are undefeated (8-0) on the road this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .463.
The Patriots are 11-1 (.917) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .508.
The Patriots are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .580.
The Patriots are 11-2 (.846) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .414.
Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots are undefeated (8-0) on the road this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .463.
The Patriots are 11-1 (.917) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .508.
The Patriots are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .580.
The Patriots are 11-2 (.846) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .414.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 15% on 3rd and long this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
Only 10% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
38% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 1st half in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Patriots defense has allowed first downs on 30% of pass attempts on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots are undefeated (8-0) on the road this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .463.
The Patriots are 11-1 (.917) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .508.
The Patriots are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .580.
The Patriots are 11-2 (.846) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .414.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 15% on 3rd and long this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
Only 10% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
38% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 1st half in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Patriots defense has allowed first downs on 30% of pass attempts on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
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- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
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