Chargers vs Texans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 11:03 AM
  • The Chargers (1-2) are -5 point favorites vs the Texans (0-2)
  • Total (Over/Under): 44 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (0-2) on Oct. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Houston.

The Chargers are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -5 (-110).

The Chargers vs. Texans Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.

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Chargers vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 4

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Chargers-5 -11044 -110-225
Texans +5 -11044 -110+180

Chargers vs. Texans Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chargers will win this Week 4 game with 74.5% confidence.

Chargers vs Texans Spread Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chargers will cover the spread this Week 4 with 67.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Chargers and Texans, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Gerald Everett has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.80 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the Interceptions Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.55 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the TD Passes Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+5.55 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Austin Ekeler has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Sony Michel has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.30 Units / 59% ROI)

Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Davis Mills has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 5 games at home (+7.60 Units / 122% ROI)
  • Davis Mills has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Davis Mills has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.65 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Davis Mills has hit the Interceptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+5.20 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Davis Mills has hit the Completions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 31% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Texans vs Chargers

Player Name Over Under
Brandin Cooks 63.5 -115 63.5 -115
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 66% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.55 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.55 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+11.70 Units / 103% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.95 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have covered the 2Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 38% ROI)

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers have gone 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Chargers are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -50% ROI
  • Chargers are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Chargers are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans have gone 2-0 (+2 Units / 59.7% ROI).

  • Texans are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -66.67% ROI
  • Texans are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Texans are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Chargers are winless (0-6) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .302.

The Chargers are undefeated (7-0) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .653.

The Chargers are 4-9 (.308) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2021 season — tied for 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .439.

The Chargers are undefeated (6-0) when not committing any turnovers since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .731.

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The Texans are 1-13-1 (.067) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.

The Texans are winless (0-12-1) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .177.

The Texans are 2-13-1 (.125) when making less than 7 explosive plays since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .414.

The Texans are winless (0-5-1) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .492.

Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans

The Texans have run successful plays on 47.8% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — third-best in NFL. The Chargers have pressured opposing QBs on just 17.1% of passing plays this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

The Texans are averaging just 3.4 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field since the 2021 season — third-worst in NFL. The Chargers have allowed just 4.2 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the left since the 2021 season — tied for second-best in NFL.

Texans have rushed the ball on 62.5% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone since Week 18 of the 2021 Season — third-highest in NFL. The Chargers have allowed just 1.4 yards per carry when defending in the red zone since Week 18 of the 2021 Season — third-best in NFL.

The Chargers have run successful plays on 50.1% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — tied for third-best in NFL. Texans have allowed successful plays on 49.9% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — fourth-worst in NFL.

Chargers RBs have averaged 5.2 touches per game in the red zone since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-highest in NFL. The Texans have allowed 18 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone to RBs since the 2021 season — third-most in NFL.

The Chargers have thrown the ball 60.5% of the time since the 2021 season — second-highest in NFL. The Texans have allowed 7.4 yards per dropback since the 2021 season — fourth-worst in NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Chargers averaged 121.6 yards from scrimmage per game (2,067 yards / 17 games) in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 94.8.

The Chargers have gone three and out on 38% of their drives in the 3rd quarter this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Chargers had a third down conversion rate of 35% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Chargers ran the ball on 21% of plays (12 carries/58 plays) in Week 3 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Texans ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans are averaging 8.1 drives per TD in the 2nd half since the 2021 season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.4.

The Texans ran successful plays on 37% of plays last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Chargers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 57% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Chargers defense did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in Week 3 — tied for worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 15.6.

The Chargers defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 57% in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Chargers defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 49% last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Texans defense allowed a passer rating of just 27.7 (17 Pass Attempts) in Week 3 — best in NFL; League Avg: 87.7.

The Texans defense have allowed 22 broken tackles this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Texans defense sacked opposing QBs on 23% of pass attempts (5/22) in Week 3 — best in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Texans defense has allowed 203.0 rushing yards per game (609/3) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 114.2.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.