Chiefs vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 9

• The Bills are +2 point favorites vs the Chiefs
• Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
• Watch this game on CBS

The Kansas City Chiefs (5-3-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (5-2-0) on Nov. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Orchard Park, NY.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at +2 (-110).

The Chiefs vs. Bills Over/Under is 52.5 total points for the game.

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Chiefs vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 53.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Chiefs vs Bills Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 53.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

• Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.15 Units / 42% ROI)
• Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.80 Units / 32% ROI)
• Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.35 Units / 37% ROI)
• Kareem Hunt has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.25 Units / 24% ROI)
• Patrick Mahomes has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 28% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.80 Units / 61% ROI)
• Elijah Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.65 Units / 54% ROI)
• Keon Coleman has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+6.60 Units / 35% ROI)
• Josh Palmer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.30 Units / 36% ROI)
• Dalton Kincaid has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 87% ROI)

Chiefs Best Bets:

• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+5.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+3.65 Units / 11% ROI)

Bills Best Bets:

• The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 14 of their last 17 games (+12.02 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.37 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+8.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Buffalo Bills have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.00 Units / 19% ROI)

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 4-3 (+0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI).

• Chiefs are 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -2.22% ROI
• Chiefs are 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
• Chiefs are 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 3-4 (-1.4 Units / -18.3% ROI).

• Bills are 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -3.91% ROI
• Bills are 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
• Bills are 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Bills defense has allowed an average of 3.2 yards after contact per carry (152 carries) to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.1.

The Bills defense had 7 sacks in Week 8 — most in NFL.

The Bills defense has allowed first downs on 100% of rush attempts on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 68%.

The Bills defense has allowed just 180.3 receiving yards per game (1,262/7) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 229.6.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have averaged -1.11 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 62% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 63% of pass attempts since Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Chiefs have averaged 9.3 yards per play when their QB has scrambled this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 4.6.

Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

The Chiefs have averaged -1.11 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 62% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 63% of pass attempts since Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Chiefs have averaged 9.3 yards per play when their QB has scrambled this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 4.6.

The Bills defense has allowed an average of 3.2 yards after contact per carry (152 carries) to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.1.

The Bills defense had 7 sacks in Week 8 — most in NFL.

The Bills defense has allowed first downs on 100% of rush attempts on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 68%.

The Bills defense has allowed just 180.3 receiving yards per game (1,262/7) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 229.6.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats

The Bills defense has allowed an average of 3.2 yards after contact per carry (152 carries) to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.1.

The Bills defense had 7 sacks in Week 8 — most in NFL.

The Bills defense has allowed first downs on 100% of rush attempts on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 68%.

The Bills defense has allowed just 180.3 receiving yards per game (1,262/7) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 229.6.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats

The Chiefs have averaged -1.11 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 62% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 63% of pass attempts since Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Chiefs have averaged 9.3 yards per play when their QB has scrambled this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 4.6.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats

The Bills defense has allowed an average of 3.2 yards after contact per carry (152 carries) to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.1.

The Bills defense had 7 sacks in Week 8 — most in NFL.

The Bills defense has allowed first downs on 100% of rush attempts on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 68%.

The Bills defense has allowed just 180.3 receiving yards per game (1,262/7) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 229.6.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats

The Chiefs have averaged -1.11 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 62% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 63% of pass attempts since Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Chiefs have averaged 9.3 yards per play when their QB has scrambled this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 4.6.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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