Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 14

min read
AP Photos
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 11, 2022, 10:00 AM
  • The Chiefs (9-3) are -9.5 point favorites vs the Broncos (3-9)
  • Total (Over/Under): 43 points
  • Watch the game on NBC

The Kansas City Chiefs visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos on Dec. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Denver.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Chiefs vs. Broncos Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.

Bet now on Broncos vs Chiefs & all NFL games with BetMGM

Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 14

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Chiefs-9.5 -11044 -110-450
Broncos +9.5 -11044 -110+350

Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction for Week 14

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 14 game with 79.0% confidence.

Chiefs vs Broncos Spread Prediction for Week 14

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread this Week 14 with 60.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Chiefs and Broncos, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Bet now on Broncos vs Chiefs and all NFL games with BetMGM


Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for Week 14, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Melvin Gordon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.40 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.70 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.55 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)

Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for Week 14, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Chase Edmonds has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Javonte Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Chase Edmonds has hit the Carries Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Russell Wilson has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Russell Wilson has hit the TD Passes Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+3.15 Units / 13% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Broncos vs Chiefs

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Travis Kelce +400
Isiah Pacheco +550
Kadarius Toney
JuJu Smith-Schuster +800
Latavius Murray +1000

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Broncos vs Chiefs

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Travis Kelce -190
Isiah Pacheco -110
Latavius Murray +115
Jerry Jeudy +155
Kadarius Toney

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Broncos vs Chiefs

Player Name Over Under
JuJu Smith-Schuster 49.5 -110 49.5 -120
Noah Gray 12.5 -115 12.5 -115
Latavius Murray 14.5 -120 14.5 -110
Kendall Hinton 38.5 -110 38.5 -120
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 37.5 -115 37.5 -120

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Broncos vs Chiefs

Player Name Over Under
Patrick Mahomes 17.5 -115 17.5 -115
Latavius Murray 47.5 -115 47.5 -115
Russell Wilson 7.5 -115 7.5 -115
Jerick McKinnon 19.5 -120 19.5 -110
Isaih Pacheco 66.5 -115 66.5 -115
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+7.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.50 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2H Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+5.60 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+11.30 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 75% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.35 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.55 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.85 Units / 44% ROI)

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 5-7 (-2.8 Units / -21.05% ROI).

  • Chiefs are 9-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 10.56% ROI
  • Chiefs are 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
  • Chiefs are 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / ROI

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos have gone 4-8 (-4.95 Units / -37.08% ROI).

  • Broncos are 3-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.15 Units / -47.53% ROI
  • Broncos are 1-11 when betting the Over for -11.15 Units / -84.15% ROI
  • Broncos are 11-1 when betting the Under for +9.9 Units / 75.29% ROI

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Chiefs are 5-0 (1.000) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent this season — tied for best in NFL. The Broncos has allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 28 s this season — fourth-highest in NFL.

The Chiefs are undefeated (4-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .617.

The Chiefs are 12-3 (.800) at home since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .534.

The Chiefs are 4-2 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .302.

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Broncos are 3-12 (.200) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .493.

The Broncos are 1-6 (.143) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .473.

The Broncos are winless (0-4) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .460.

The Broncos are 1-4 (.200) at home this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .564.

Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Broncos RBs have averaged 8.0 targets per game this season — tied for fourth-highest in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 6.1 receptions per game to RBs this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.

The Broncos are averaging just 1.1 yards per carry on 3rd and short this season — second-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed just 2.1 yards per carry when defending on 3rd and short this season — second-best in NFL.

Broncos QBs have been 14 sacked since Week 10 — tied for second-most in NFL. The Chiefs have sacked the quarterback 14 times since Week 10 — third-most in NFL.

Chiefs TEs have gained 464 yards on 33 receptions (14.1 YPR) since Week 10 — third-best in NFL. The Broncos have allowed 12.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs since Week 10 — fifth-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs are 5-0 (1.000) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent this season — tied for best in NFL. The Broncos has allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 28 s this season — fourth-highest in NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats for Week 14

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 47% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Chiefs have converted first downs on 31 of 63 plays (49%) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Chiefs have run 21% of their plays in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Chiefs had a third down conversion rate of 53% last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats for Week 14

The Broncos have started 55 drives inside their own 20 yard line this season — most in NFL.

The Broncos have scored 3.0 points per Red Zone drive this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.3.

The Broncos have started 19 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 1st quarter this season — most in NFL.

The Broncos have scored 3.6 points per Red Zone drive since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.3.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats for Week 14

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 51% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 56% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 54% of rush attempts in the 2nd half last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 52% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats for Week 14

The Broncos defense has allowed 3 TD passes in the red zone this season — fewest in NFL.

The Broncos defense have averaged 36.2 defensive penalty yards per game (434/12) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20.2.

The Broncos’ opponents have averaged 45.9 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) this season — best Pass Attempts Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 24.2.

The Broncos defense has allowed just 0.8 TDs per game (9/12) in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

Looking to place a bet on this game with a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Broncos vs Chiefs and all NFL games with BetMGM

Bet on NFL Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated NFL betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.