Chiefs vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 1

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Kyler Murray Arizona Cardinals
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 11, 2022, 8:20 AM
  • The Chiefs (0-0) are -6 favorites vs the Cardinals (0-0)
  • Watch the game on CBS
  • Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points

The Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) visit State Farm Stadium to take on the Arizona Cardinals (0-0) on Sep. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm ET in Glendale.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -6 (-115).

The Chiefs vs. Cardinals Over/Under is 53.5 total points for the game.

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Chiefs vs. Cardinals Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 1

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Kansas City Chiefs-6 -11553.5 -110-250
Arizona Cardinals +6 -10553.5 -110+200

Chiefs vs. Cardinals Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 1 NFL matchup with 68.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Chiefs and Cardinals, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.90 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Mecole Hardman has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.35 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Completions Over in his last 4 away games (+4.20 Units / 97% ROI)
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.30 Units / 27% ROI)

Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cardinals players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Zach Ertz has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • DeAndre Hopkins has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 41% ROI)
  • DeAndre Hopkins has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Rondale Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.15 Units / 33% ROI)
  • James Conner has hit the Carries Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Cardinals vs Chiefs

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Travis Kelce +600
James Conner +750
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +800
JuJu Smith-Schuster +900
AJ Green +1100

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Cardinals vs Chiefs

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Travis Kelce -175
James Conner -135
Clyde Edwards-Helaire -110
JuJu Smith-Schuster +100
Marquise Brown +145

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Cardinals vs Chiefs

Player Name Over Under
Travis Kelce 74.5 -115 74.5 -115
JuJu Smith-Schuster 46.5 -115 46.5 -110
Mecole Hardman 37.5 -115 37.5 -115
James Conner 28.5 -115 28.5 -110
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 11.5 -120 11.5 -110

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Cardinals vs Chiefs

Player Name Over Under
Patrick Mahomes 19.5 -115 19.5 -115
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 44.5 -115 44.5 -115
Kyler Murray 34.5 -115 34.5 -115
James Conner 51.5 -115 51.5 -110
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have scored first in 13 of their last 16 games (+8.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.10 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+5.80 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.90 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.75 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.35 Units / 12% ROI)

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Arizona Cardinals

The Chiefs were 1-2 (.333) when rushing less than 20 times last season — tied for 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .121.

The Chiefs were 2-2 (.500) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .165.

The Chiefs were undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 22 points last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .762.

The Chiefs were 8-4 (.667) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season — tied for 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .407.

Arizona Cardinals: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Cardinals were 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season — seventh-best in NFL. The Chiefs averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — tied for third-worst in NFL.

The Cardinals were winless (0-4) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .165.

The Cardinals were 7-2 (.778) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season — tied for 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .572.

The Cardinals were 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 22 points last season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .762.

Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals RBs averaged 8.0 targets per game in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — fourth-highest in NFL. The Chiefs allowed 5.5 receptions per game to RBs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — fifth-worst in NFL.

Cardinals WRs were targeted 11 times inside the 10 yardline in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — third-most in NFL. The Chiefs allowed 3 receiving touchdowns inside the 10 yardline to WRs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — tied for fourth-most in NFL.

The Cardinals were 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season — seventh-best in NFL. The Chiefs averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — tied for third-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs threw 10 touchdown passes in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — tied for third-most in NFL. The Cardinals allowed 11 passing TDs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — most in NFL.

The Chiefs averaged 2.2 passing TDs per game last season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Cardinals allowed 1.8 passing touchdowns per game last season– tied for third-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs rushed the ball on just 40.1% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone last season — fifth-lowest in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed 9 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — tied for third-fewest in NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Chiefs had a third down conversion rate of 53% last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Chiefs went three and out on 10% of their drives last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Chiefs ran successful plays on 50% of plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Chiefs converted first downs on 50 of 65 plays (77%) on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 62%.

Arizona Cardinals Offense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Cardinals converted first downs on 36 of 102 plays (35%) on 3rd and long last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Cardinals had a third down conversion rate of 29% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Cardinals ran successful plays on 52% of plays in close and late situations last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Cardinals had a third down conversion rate of 51% against the blitz last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Chiefs defense did not allow a TD pass in Week 18 — tied for fewest in NFL.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 51% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 55% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2019 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Chiefs defense allowed no passing TDs (25 pass attempts) in Week 18 — tied for best Pass Attempts Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 17.1.

Arizona Cardinals Defense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Cardinals defense allowed an average of 2.2 yards after contact per carry (421 carries) last season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.

The Cardinals defense forced 19 fumbles last season — tied for most in NFL.

The Cardinals defense allowed an average of 2.3 yards after contact per carry (358 carries) to RBs last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.0.

Offenses facing the Cardinals targeted TEs 17% of the time (94 Pass Attempts/561 plays) last season — 3rd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.