Chiefs vs Chargers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 17, 2022, 1:45 PM
  • The Chiefs (7-2) are -7 point favorites vs the Chargers (5-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Kansas City Chiefs (8-2) visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) on Nov. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Inglewood.

The are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Chiefs vs. Chargers Over/Under is total points for the game.

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Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Chiefs
Chargers

Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 11 game with 78.0% confidence.

Chiefs vs Chargers Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread this Week 11 with 55.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Chiefs and Chargers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.50 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 away games (+6.05 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Jerick McKinnon has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.30 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+4.25 Units / 23% ROI)

Best Chargers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Austin Ekeler has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.50 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the Interceptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.55 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the Completions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.55 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Gerald Everett has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.45 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Austin Ekeler has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.75 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.70 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+6.60 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.35 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.65 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.65 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.40 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.30 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 93% ROI)

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 4-5 (-1.55 Units / -15.58% ROI).

  • Chiefs are 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.8 Units / 14.96% ROI
  • Chiefs are 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Chiefs are 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / ROI

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers have gone 6-3 (+2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Chargers are 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -12.38% ROI
  • Chargers are 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Chargers are 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The Chiefs are undefeated (10-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2020 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .534.

The Chiefs are 3-1 (.750) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .410.

The Chiefs are 13-3 (.812) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .496.

The Chiefs are 6-4 (.600) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2020 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .202.

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Chargers are 1-2 (.333) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game this season — tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .455.

The Chargers are 4-1 (.800) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs this season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .567.

The Chargers are undefeated (9-0) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .650.

The Chargers are winless (0-2) when allowing 3 or more sacks this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.

Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers RBs have averaged 12.6 targets per game this season — highest in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 6.6 receptions per game to RBs this season — tied for worst in NFL.

Chargers RBs have 59.7 receiving yards per game this season — best in NFL. The Chiefs have averaged 46.1 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs this season — third-worst in NFL.

The Chargers have thrown the ball 66.3% of the time in the red zone this season — highest in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 16 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Chiefs have run 49.0% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — fourth-best in NFL. Chargers have allowed their opponents to run 48.7% of plays in their territory this season — worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 44.4% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — second-best in NFL. The Chargers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 39.1% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have scored on 46.7% of their drives in the second half this season — third-best in NFL. The Chargers defense has allowed scores on 45.7% of opponent drives in the second half this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Chiefs had a third down conversion rate of 53% last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Chiefs have thrown for 25 TDs this season — most in NFL.

The Chiefs have scored 29 TDs in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 53% since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Chargers ran successful plays on 21% of plays in the 2nd half in Week 10 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Chargers had a third down conversion rate of 35% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Chargers averaged 121.6 yards from scrimmage per game (2,067 yards / 17 games) in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 94.8.

The Chargers have been sacked on just 2% of pass attempts (2/119) in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Chiefs defense has allowed 16 TD passes in the red zone this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 51% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Chiefs defense sacked opposing QBs on just 5% of pass attempts (31/640) last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Chiefs defense has allowed 6.3 TDs per interception (19 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Chargers defense has allowed scores on 48% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

The Chargers defense has allowed successful plays on 64% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Chargers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 39% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Chargers defense has allowed an average of 2.3 yards after contact per carry (238 carries) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.7.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.