Chiefs vs Raiders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 07, 2023, 9:41 AM
  • The Chiefs (13-3) are -7.5 point favorites vs the Raiders (6-10)
  • Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
  • Watch the Saturday game on ABC

The Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the Las Vegas Raiders (6-10) on Saturday, Jan. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Las Vegas.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in Week 18, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).

The Chiefs vs. Raiders Over/Under is 52.5 total points for the game.

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Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 18

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Chiefs-8.5 -11052.5 -110-400
Raiders +8.5 -11052.5 -110+310

Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 18 game with 78.0% confidence.

Chiefs vs Raiders Spread Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Raiders will cover the spread this Week 18 with 58.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Chiefs and Raiders, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jerick McKinnon has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.05 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Melvin Gordon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the TD Passes Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Isiah Pacheco has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 82% ROI)

Best Raiders Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Raiders players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Jacobs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.30 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Foster Moreau has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+6.25 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Josh Jacobs has hit the Carries Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Derek Carr has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.70 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Derek Carr has hit the TD Passes Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.70 Units / 23% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Raiders vs Chiefs

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Travis Kelce +500
Jerrick McKinnon +550
Isiah Pacheco +600
Josh Jacobs +800
Davante Adams +900

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Raiders vs Chiefs

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Travis Kelce -160
Jerrick McKinnon -150
Isiah Pacheco -130
Josh Jacobs -125
Davante Adams -110

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Raiders vs Chiefs

Player Name Over Under
Noah Gray 12.5 -120 12.5 -110
Travis Kelce 76.5 -115 76.5 -115
Isiah Pacheco 11.5 -115 11.5 -115
Mack Hollins 35.5 -115 35.5 -115
Davante Adams 78.5 -120 78.5 -110

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Raiders vs Chiefs

Player Name Over Under
Patrick Mahomes 14.5 -110 14.5 -120
Isaih Pacheco 60.5 -115 60.5 -115
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.25 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.65 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 2Q Spread in their last 9 games (+9.15 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+7.30 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 6-10 (-5.10 Units / -28.8% ROI).

  • Chiefs are 13-3 when betting on the Moneyline for 8.35 Units / 12.48% ROI
  • Chiefs are 8-8 when betting the Over for -0.8 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Chiefs are 8-8 when betting the Under for -0.8 Units / -4.55% ROI

Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders have gone 8-8 (-0.8 Units / -4.5% ROI).

  • Raiders are 6-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.2 Units / -33.2% ROI
  • Raiders are 9-7 when betting the Over for 1.3 Units / 7.4% ROI
  • Raiders are 7-9 when betting the Under for -2.9 Units / -16.48% ROI

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs are 6-1 (.857) when not throwing an interception this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Raiders have intercepted 6 passes this season — third-fewest in NFL.

The Chiefs are 7-2 (.778) when rushing less than 25 times this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .315.

The Chiefs are 10-2 (.833) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — tied for second-best in NFL. The Raiders have averaged just 1.6 sacks per game over that time span — tied for third-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs are 19-4 (.826) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .495.

Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Raiders are 1-4 (.200) when making less than 7 explosive plays this season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .401.

The Raiders are winless (0-6) when scoring less than 22 points this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .274.

The Raiders are 3-1 (.750) vs bottom 10 run defenses this season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .531.

The Raiders are 2-9 (.182) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .410.

Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders WRs have 20 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-most in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 32 receiving touchdowns this season — most in NFL.

The Raiders have thrown the ball 58.3% of the time in the red zone this season — fourth-highest in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 26 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Chiefs ran 22.8% offensive plays in the red zone last week — third-best in NFL. Raiders allowed their opponent to run 21.7% of plays in the red zone in Week 14 — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have been successful on 50.0% of plays they have run this season — best in NFL. Raiders have allowed their opponents to be successful on 48.1% of plays this season — second-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 50.8% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — second-best in NFL. Raiders have allowed successful plays on 54.7% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — second-worst in NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 40% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Chiefs have thrown for 40 TDs this season — most in NFL.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 54% of plays in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Chiefs have converted first downs on 34 of 77 plays (44%) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

Las Vegas Raiders Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Raiders have 18 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.

The Raiders have averaged 27.2 offensive penalty yards per game (897/33) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20.2.

The Raiders have started 7 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — fewest in NFL.

The Raiders have scored on 75% of their drives in the 1st quarter since Week 14 — best in NFL; League Avg: 27%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Chiefs defense has allowed 26 TD passes in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Chiefs defense has allowed 26 touchdown receptions in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 18% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter since Week 14 — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 56% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Las Vegas Raiders Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Raiders defense has intercepted 12 of 1,169 attempts (97.4 pass attempts per int.) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43.3.

The Raiders defense has allowed 4.4 TDs per interception (53 TDs allowed, and 12 INT) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.

The Raiders defense has allowed 9 TD passes when the opposing QB has scrambled since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Raiders defense allowed first downs on 43% of plays in the red zone last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.