Chiefs vs Raiders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

BetMGM Betting Dec 31, 2025, 4:10 PM

min read

Las Vegas Raiders fans look on before an NFL football game between the Raiders and the Cleveland Browns Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/David Becker)

(AP Photo/David Becker)

The Chiefs are -5.5 point favorites vs the Raiders
Total (Over/Under): 36.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Kansas City Chiefs (6-10-0) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the Las Vegas Raiders (2-14-0) on Jan. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Paradise, NV.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Chiefs vs. Raiders Over/Under is 36.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Raiders vs Chiefs & all NFL games with BetMGM

Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 71.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bet now on Raiders vs Chiefs and all NFL games with BetMGM

Get a New Player Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

Kareem Hunt has hit the Receptions Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+13.20 Units / 48% ROI)
Marquise Brown has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 34% ROI)
Brashard Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.05 Units / 92% ROI)
Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 away games (+6.15 Units / 90% ROI)
Tyquan Thornton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 59% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Raiders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Raiders Player Prop Best Bets Today

Ashton Jeanty has hit the Longest Rush Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 56% ROI)
Ashton Jeanty has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)
Geno Smith has hit the Longest Rush Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)
Brock Bowers has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)
Tyler Lockett has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.70 Units / 66% ROI)

Chiefs Best Bets:

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.60 Units / 31% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.35 Units / 24% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+4.65 Units / 16% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.10 Units / 5% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 9 away games (+0.95 Units / 9% ROI)

Raiders Best Bets:

The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 36% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.85 Units / 36% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.75 Units / 27% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+1.85 Units / 9% ROI)

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 6-10 (-5 Units / -28.41% ROI).

Chiefs are 6-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.35 Units / -29.18% ROI
Chiefs are 4-12 when betting the Over for -9.2 Units / -52.27% ROI
Chiefs are 12-4 when betting the Under for +7.6 Units / ROI

Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders are 6-10 (-5.15 Units / -29.01% ROI).

Raiders are 2-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.8 Units / -71.31% ROI
Raiders are 8-8 when betting the Over for -0.8 Units / -4.55% ROI
Raiders are 8-8 when betting the Under for -0.8 Units / -4.55% ROI

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have averaged -1.06 epa per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.49.

The Raiders have scored 10 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.

The Raiders have run 32% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Raiders have averaged just 0.6 yards per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 3.1.

Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 21% of pass attempts on play action passes since Week 14 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Chiefs have averaged -0.76 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.06.

The Chiefs have converted first downs on just 23 of 154 plays (15%) on 3rd and long this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The Chiefs have gone three and out 7 times in the 2nd quarter this season — fewest in NFL.

Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders