Chiefs vs Texans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 15

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 15, 2022, 11:00 AM
  • The Chiefs (10-3) are -14 point favorites vs the Texans (1-11)
  • Total (Over/Under): 49 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (1-11) on Dec. 18. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Houston.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in Week 15, with the spread sitting at -14 (-110).

The Chiefs vs. Texans Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.

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Chiefs vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 15

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Chiefs-14 -11049.5 -110-1000
Texans +14 -11049.5 -110+625

Chiefs vs. Texans Prediction for Week 15

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 15 game with 77.0% confidence.

Chiefs vs Texans Spread Prediction for Week 15

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread this Week 15 with 52.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Chiefs and Texans, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for Week 15, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Melvin Gordon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+7.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Isiah Pacheco has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for Week 15, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Davis Mills has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+6.05 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Davis Mills has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Dameon Pierce has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Phillip Dorsett has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Dameon Pierce has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 11 games (+3.45 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.50 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.55 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.35 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+8.35 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.90 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games (+4.75 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+4.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+3.95 Units / 23% ROI)

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 5-8 (-3.9 Units / -27.08% ROI).

  • Chiefs are 10-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.35 Units / 11.77% ROI
  • Chiefs are 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
  • Chiefs are 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / ROI

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans have gone 5-7 (-2.65 Units / -18.53% ROI).

  • Texans are 1-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.4 Units / -64.62% ROI
  • Texans are 5-8 when betting the Over for -3.85 Units / -26.83% ROI
  • Texans are 8-5 when betting the Under for +2.5 Units / 17.54% ROI

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Chiefs are undefeated (5-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .621.

The Chiefs are 6-1 (.857) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — third-best in NFL. The Texans have turned the ball over 24 times this season — second-most in NFL.

The Chiefs are 5-2 (.714) when rushing less than 25 times this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .312.

The Chiefs are 11-6 (.647) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .289.

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Texans are winless (0-7-1) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .493.

The Texans are winless (0-5-1) at home this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .550.

The Texans are 1-18-1 (.050) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.

The Texans are 2-12-1 (.133) at home since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .527.

Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans

The Texans were successful on just 35.9% of plays they have run last week — fourth-worst in NFL. Chiefs allowed their opponents to be successful on just 31.9% of plays in Week 14 — best in NFL.

The Texans have 6 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for second-fewest in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 7 rushing TDs this season — tied for third-fewest in NFL.

The Texans have run successful plays on just 9.1% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure since Week 11 — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have pressured opposing QBs on 27.1% of passing plays since Week 11 — fourth-best in NFL.

The Chiefs had a third down conversion rate of 50.0% last week — tied for third-best in NFL. The Texans defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 53.3% in Week 14 — second-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 49.6% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — second-best in NFL. Texans have allowed successful plays on 52.0% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs were successful on 46.9% of plays they have run last week — fifth-best in NFL. Texans allowed their opponents to be successful on 51.4% of plays in Week 14 — worst in NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats for Week 15

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 48% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 67% on third and 10+ yards to go since Week 11 — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Chiefs have converted first downs on 185 of 358 plays (52%) on 3rd down since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Chiefs have scored on 61% of their drives in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats for Week 15

The Texans have converted first downs on just 22 of 122 plays (18%) in close and late situations this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

The Texans have started 17 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — 3rd-most in NFL.

The Texans ran successful plays on 37% of plays last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans have run successful plays on 32% of plays in close and late situations since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats for Week 15

The Chiefs defense has allowed 23 TD passes in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Chiefs defense has allowed 9 TD passes in close and late situations this season — most in NFL.

The Chiefs defense has allowed 23 touchdown receptions in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Chiefs defense allowed 4 TD passes in Week 14 — most in NFL.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats for Week 15

Offenses facing the Texans have thrown the ball 48% of the time (939 Pass Attempts/1,966 plays) since the 2021 season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

Opponents have run the ball 31.0 times per game against The Texans defense (930 carries / 30 games) since the 2021 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 26.0.

The Texans defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 37% (19 completions/51 attempts) in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

Opponents have run the ball 32.7 times per game against The Texans defense (425 carries / 13 games) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 26.1.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.