Colts vs Broncos Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5 TNF

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 06, 2022, 11:19 AM
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  • Total (Over/Under): points
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The Indianapolis Colts (2-2) visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (2-3) on Oct. 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Denver.

The are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at ().

The Colts vs. Broncos Over/Under is total points for the game.

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Colts vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 5

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Colts
Broncos

Colts vs. Broncos Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Broncos will win this Week 5 game with 55.3% confidence.

Colts vs Broncos Spread Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread this Week 5 with 57.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Colts and Broncos, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nyheim Hines has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Matt Ryan has hit the TD Passes Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Matt Ryan has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.65 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Michael Pittman has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Russell Wilson has hit the Completions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Tim Patrick has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Latavius Murray has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Javonte Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.45 Units / 39% ROI)
  • First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Broncos vs Colts

    Player Name 1st TD Odds
    Dezmon Patmon
    Melvin Gordon +500
    Courtland Sutton +600
    Nyheim Hines +800
    Jerry Jeudy +800

    Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Broncos vs Colts

    Player Name Anytime TD Odds
    Jonathan Taylor
    Courtland Sutton -115
    Dezmon Patmon
    Melvin Gordon -150
    Jerry Jeudy +130

    Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Broncos vs Colts

    Player Name Over Under
    Mo Alie-Cox 18.5 -115 18.5 -110
    Alec Pierce 34.5 -115 34.5 -115
    Parris Campbell 21.5 -115 21.5 -115
    Jerry Jeudy 51.5 -115 51.5 -110
    Michael Pittman Jr. 64.5 -115 64.5 -115

    Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Broncos vs Colts

    Player Name Over Under
    Matt Ryan 1.5 -130 1.5 +100
    Russell Wilson 13.5 -110 13.5 -115
    Melvin Gordon 57.5 -115 57.5 -115
    Nyheim Hines 36.5 -115 36.5 -110
    Phillip Lindsay 37.5 -115 37.5 -110
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Under in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Team Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.65 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have scored last in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.40 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 14 games (+4.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts have gone 1-3 (-2.25 Units / -51.72% ROI).

    • Colts are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -22.5% ROI
    • Colts are 0-4 when betting the Over for -4.4 Units / -100% ROI
    • Colts are 4-0 when betting the Under for +4 Units / ROI

    Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos have gone 1-3 (-2.2 Units / -51.16% ROI).

    • Broncos are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -17.86% ROI
    • Broncos are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.35 Units / -52.81% ROI
    • Broncos are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.68% ROI

    Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

    The Colts are 3-5-1 (.333) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .493.

    The Colts are 8-5 (.615) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .735.

    The Colts are 2-5-1 (.250) when playing in warm weather since the 2021 season — tied for 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .492.

    The Colts are 2-3-1 (.333) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .635.

    Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

    The Broncos are winless (0-6) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2020 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .492.

    The Broncos are 3-6 (.333) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — 6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .493.

    The Broncos are winless (0-3) when committing 2 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .261.

    The Broncos are 2-6 (.250) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .435.

    Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos

    The Broncos have scored on 20.8% of their drives in the second half this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Colts defense has allowed scores on 18.2% of opponent drives in the second half this season — tied for third-best in NFL.

    The Broncos have gone three and out on 29.5% of their drives this season — second-worst in NFL. Colts have forced three and outs on 28.9% of opponent drives this season — fourth-best in NFL.

    The Broncos have gone three and out on 37.5% of their drives in the second half this season — tied for worst in NFL. Colts have forced three and outs on 31.8% of opponent drives in the second half this season — tied for third-best in NFL.

    The Colts are averaging 4.3 yards per carry on rushes up the middle since the 2021 season — tied for third-best in NFL. The Broncos have allowed 4.6 yards per carry when defending rushes up the middle since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL.

    Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Colts have run successful plays on 27% of rush attempts in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

    The Colts ran successful plays on 13% of rush attempts in Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

    The Colts gained at least 5 yards on 18% of first down plays in Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

    The Colts threw the ball 33% of the time (33 Pass Attempts/99 plays) on second and 4-7 yards to go last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

    Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Broncos have run successful plays on 25% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

    The Broncos have run successful plays on 24% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

    The Broncos have not recorded a TD in 12 drives in the 3rd quarter this season — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.

    The Broncos ran 4% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half in Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

    Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 12% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

    The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 16% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

    The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 24% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

    The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 24% of rush attempts in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

    Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Broncos defense allowed just 6.9 points per game to opposing offenses (117 points / 17 games) in the 2nd half last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.

    The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 32% of pass attempts in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

    The Broncos defense has allowed a passer rating of just 59.0 in close and late situations (124 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 89.1.

    The Broncos defense allowed no passing TDs (34 pass attempts) in Week 4 — tied for best Pass Attempts Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 23.7.

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.