Colts vs Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 2

• The Chiefs are -6.5 point favorites vs the Colts
• Total (Over/Under): 48 points
• Watch this game on NBC | PEAC

The Indianapolis Colts (0-1-0) visit Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (1-0-0) on Sep. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 pm in Kansas City, MO.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).

The Colts vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 48 total points for the game.

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Colts vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Colts vs. Chiefs Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 61.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Colts vs Chiefs Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 51.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today

• Alec Pierce has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.65 Units / 45% ROI)
• Tyler Warren has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 39% ROI)
• Alec Pierce has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)
• Daniel Jones has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 41% ROI)
• Daniel Jones has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Brashard Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.05 Units / 92% ROI)
• Patrick Mahomes has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 30% ROI)
• Justin Fields has hit the Interceptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.30 Units / 42% ROI)
• Justin Fields has hit the Carries Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.10 Units / 93% ROI)
• Justin Fields has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 88% ROI)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Colts

Colts Best Bets:

• The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in their last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 87% ROI)
• The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.00 Units / 60% ROI)
• The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 away games (+5.45 Units / 60% ROI)
• The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+5.25 Units / 58% ROI)
• The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 28% ROI)

Chiefs Best Bets:

• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+5.60 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+3.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.19 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.10 Units / 30% ROI)

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

• Colts are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
• Colts are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
• ColtsColtsColts are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).

• Chiefs are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 76.92% ROI
• Chiefs are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
• Chiefs are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

Colts are 7-2 (.778) when rushing for 100 or more yards (8th-best in NFL) and just .111 when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2025 season (10th-worst in NFL).

The Colts were 7-1 (.875) when rushing for 100 or more yards (T-5th-best in NFL) and just .111 when rushing for less than 100 yards last season (10th-worst in NFL).

Colts are 2-9 (.182) when making less than 3 explosive run plays in a game (5th-worst in NFL) and .857 when making 3 or more explosive run plays in a game since the 2025 season (T-5th-best in NFL).

Colts are 2-7 (.222) when making less than 7 explosive plays in a game (9th-worst in NFL) and .667 when making less than 7 explosive plays in a game since the 2025 season (T-8th-best in NFL).

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Chiefs are winless (0-5) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .408.

The Chiefs were winless (0-9) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.

Chiefs are 3-10 (.231) when allowing 10 or more rushes of 4+ yards (T-7th-worst in NFL) and .800 when allowing 1ess than 10 plays of 4+ yards rushing since the 2025 season (T-9th-best in NFL).

The Chiefs are winless (0-4) when allowing 250 or more passing yards since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .448.

Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs were successful on 70.0% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 4th-best in NFL. The Colts allowed a success rate of 61.5% on pass attempts on their own side of the field last week — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs rushed the ball on 52.2% of plays from scrimmage last week — 5th-highest in NFL. The Colts allowed 6.0 yards per carry last week — T-3rd-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs averaged just 3.7 yards per carry last season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Colts allowed just 4.0 yards per carry last season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Colts have averaged just -0.23 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2025 season — T-5th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed just -0.30 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Colts have been successful on 68.4% of rush attempts against a stacked front since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed a success rate of 53.6% on rush attempts with a stacked front since the 2025 season — T-4th-worst in NFL.

The Colts were successful on 68.4% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Chiefs allowed a success rate of 55.6% on rush attempts with a stacked front last season — 4th-worst in NFL.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats

The Colts were flagged only 1 time on offense in Week 1 — T-2nd-fewest in NFL.

The Colts have scored on 47% of their drives (21/45) in the 1st quarter since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 33%.

The Colts have run successful plays on 68% of rush attempts against a stacked front since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Colts averaged 0.16 epa per play on motion plays last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 72% of rush attempts against a stacked front since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Chiefs averaged just 1.8 yards per play on contested throws last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.

The Chiefs have averaged -0.75 epa per play on contested throws since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.11.

The Chiefs have averaged -0.43 epa per play on contested throws since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.09.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats

The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 85% of rush attempts first read passes since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Colts defense has forced 7 turnovers in the red zone since the 2025 season — most in NFL.

The Colts defense allowed 4 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — T-fewest in NFL.

The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 73% of plays in the 4th quarter in Week 1 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats

The Chiefs defense has allowed a fourth down conversion rate of 25% in short yardage situations since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 63%.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 19% of plays in the 2nd half in Week 1 — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Chiefs defense allowed a fourth down conversion rate of 25% in short yardage situations last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 63%.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 22% of plays in the 4th quarter in Week 1 — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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