- The Colts are +1 point favorites vs the Commanders
- Total (Over/Under): 50 points
- Watch this game on NFLN | ESPD
The Indianapolis Colts (1-2-0) visit Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to take on the Washington Commanders (1-2-0) on Oct. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 am in London, England.
The Colts are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at +1 (-210).
The Colts vs. Commanders Over/Under is 50 total points for the game.
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Colts vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Colts | +1 -210 | 50 -145 | -190 |
| Commanders | -1 +170 | 50 +120 | +155 |
Colts vs. Commanders Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Colts will win this game with 53.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Colts vs Commanders Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread with 52.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today
- Tyler Warren has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Daniel Jones has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Daniel Jones has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Daniel Jones has hit the Longest Rush Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Darius Slayton has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.45 Units / 64% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jaylin Lane has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.30 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Completions Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Stefon Diggs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- Stefon Diggs has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+5.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- Chigoziem Okonkwo has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.45 Units / 34% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Commanders vs Colts
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | +260 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | +675 |
| Josh Downs | +850 |
| Tyler Warren | +850 |
| Keenan Allen | +1400 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Commanders vs Colts
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | -235 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | -105 |
| Tyler Warren | +160 |
| Josh Downs | +165 |
| Terry McLaurin | +210 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Commanders vs Colts
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | 62.5 -135 | 62.5 +100 |
| Terry McLaurin | 54.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 |
| Tyler Warren | 46.5 -120 | 46.5 -111 |
| Stefon Diggs | 43.5 -120 | 43.5 -111 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 18.5 -120 | 18.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Commanders vs Colts
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 90.5 -115 | 90.5 -115 |
| Marcus Mariota | 26.5 -115 | 26.5 -115 |
| Daniel Jones | 11.5 -110 | 11.5 -120 |
Colts Best Bets:
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in their last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+3.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 3Q Spread in 9 of their last 16 games (+2.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games at home (+1.65 Units / 21% ROI)
Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Colts are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -33.33% ROI
- Colts are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- ColtsColtsColts are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Commanders are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 40% ROI
- Commanders are 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Commanders are 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
Colts are 3-10 (.231) when making less than 3 explosive run plays in a game (T-6th-worst in NFL) and .857 when making 3 or more explosive run plays in a game since the 2025 season (6th-best in NFL).
The Colts are 7-0 (1.000) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed an average of 133.8 rushing yards per game since the 2025 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
Colts are 2-8 (.200) when making less than 7 explosive plays in a game (T-5th-worst in NFL) and .700 when making less than 7 explosive plays in a game since the 2025 season (7th-best in NFL).
The Colts are undefeated (3-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .556.
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts
The Commanders are winless (0-8) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .344.
The Commanders are 2-5 (.286) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter since the 2025 season — 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .497.
The Commanders are 1-12 (.077) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2025 season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .157.
The Commanders are 4-13 (.235) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2025 season — 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .407.
Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders
The Commanders have scored on 57.1% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Colts defense has allowed scores on 55.6% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — T-5th-worst in NFL.
The Colts have averaged 0.13 epa per play with motion since the 2025 season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 0.17 epa per play against motion since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL.
The Colts have been successful on 48.1% of plays they have run with motion since the 2025 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed a success rate of 47.1% against motion since the 2025 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
Colts RBs have averaged 2.3 yards after contact per carry since the 2025 season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 2.2 yards after contact per carry since the 2025 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats
The Colts have been flagged only 1 time for 10+ yards on offense this season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL.
The Colts have run successful plays on 15% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Colts have averaged just 5.3 yards per play on play action passes this season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.4.
The Colts have been flagged 7 times on offense this season — T-fewest in NFL.
Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats
The Commanders have gone three and out 4 times in the 3rd quarter this season — 3rd-most in NFL.
The Commanders have run successful plays on 29% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Commanders have converted first downs on just 36 of 70 plays (51%) on 3rd and short since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.
The Commanders have gone three and out on 50% of their drives in the 1st quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats
The Colts defense has forced 7 turnovers in the red zone since the 2025 season — most in NFL.
The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 85% of rush attempts first read passes since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Colts defense have allowed 6.8 yards per play this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.
The Colts defense has allowed 7 TDs in the 1st half this season — most in NFL.
Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats
The Commanders defense has allowed 10 of 54 (18%) first downs on the ground this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 37%.
The Commanders defense allowed successful plays on 85% of plays in the 4th quarter in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Commanders defense have allowed 10.7 yards per play open coverage since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9.2.
The Commanders defense has blitzed on 71% of plays on 3rd and long this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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