- The Colts are -2.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Indianapolis Colts (5-7-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (3-9-0) on Dec. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Foxborough, MA.
The Colts are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-120).
The Colts vs. Patriots Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.
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Colts vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under
Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
Colts | -2.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | -150 |
Patriots | +2.5 +100 | 42.5 -110 | +125 |
Colts vs. Patriots Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Colts will win this game with 75.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Colts vs Patriots Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 59.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today
- Matt Gay has hit the Field Goals Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the Interceptions Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 52% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the TD Passes Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kylen Granson has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.30 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Ja’Lynn Polk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
- Hunter Henry has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.95 Units / 62% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+3.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Colts Best Bets:
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 22 games (+2.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 22 games (+2.95 Units / 11% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+1.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have scored last in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.75 Units / 33% ROI)
Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts art 8-4 (+3.6 Units / 27.59% ROI).
- Colts are 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -9.51% ROI
- Colts are 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
- Colts are 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / ROI
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 4-7 (-3.6 Units / -27.38% ROI).
- Patriots are 3-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -6.67% ROI
- Patriots are 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
- Patriots are 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Colts were undefeated (8-0) when leading at the end of the first half last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .783.
The Colts were 9-5 (.643) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .505.
The Colts were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Colts were 5-3 (.625) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts
The Patriots are winless (0-7) after a win since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .528.
The Patriots are 2-11 (.154) at home since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .535.
The Patriots were winless (0-6) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.
The Patriots were winless (0-8) when allowing 3 or more sacks last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .350.
Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots
Patriots TEs have 79 receptions in 12 games (6.6 per game) this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed 5.8 receptions per game to TEs this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
Patriots TEs have averaged 9.5 targets per game this season — 3rd-highest in NFL. The Colts have allowed 5.8 receptions per game to TEs this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Patriots have thrown the ball 10 yards or less 76.2% of pass attempts this season — 3rd-highest in NFL. The Colts have allowed 6.8 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
The Colts have run successful plays on 63.2% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed successful plays on 61.3% of rush attempts with a base rush this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Colts ran successful plays on just 25.0% of rush attempts last week — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Patriots allowed successful plays on just 28.6% of rush attempts last week — 5th-best in NFL.
Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats
The Colts turned the ball over on downs 6 times in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
The Colts have run successful plays on 24% of rush attempts since Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Colts ran no plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter in Week 12 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Colts have thrown 59% of their pass attempts 1 to 10 yards downfield this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 70%.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots averaged -0.45 epa per play against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.
The Patriots started 24 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — most in NFL.
The Patriots started 65 drives inside their own 20 yard line last season — most in NFL.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 24% of plays against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats
The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 88% of pass attempts with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 77% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
The Colts defense has not allowed a TD on first drive of the game this season — fewest in NFL.
Offenses facing the Colts have thrown deep balls on just 2% of pass attempts (1/54) on 3rd and long this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense allowed 4 TD passes in Week 12 — most in NFL.
The Patriots defense allowed successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 2nd half last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Patriots defense has allowed successful plays on 22% of plays in the 4th quarter since Week 9 — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Patriots defense allowed 6.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (5,375 yards / 850 touches) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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