Colts vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 9

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 01, 2022, 2:59 PM
  • The Patriots (4-4) are -5.5 point favorites vs the Colts (3-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 39.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Indianapolis Colts (3-4) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (4-4) on Nov. 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Foxborough.

The Patriots are betting favorites in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Colts vs. Patriots Over/Under is 39.5 total points for the game.

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Colts vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 9

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Colts+5.5 -11039.5 -110+180
Patriots -5.5 -11039.5 -110-225

Colts vs. Patriots Prediction for Week 9

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this Week 9 game with 67.5% confidence.

Colts vs Patriots Spread Prediction for Week 9

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread this Week 9 with 54.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Colts and Patriots, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players for Week 9, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Matt Ryan has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.75 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.85 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Nyheim Hines has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Parris Campbell has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Mo Alie-Cox has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.20 Units / 52% ROI)

Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 9, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Mac Jones has hit the Interceptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.45 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Hunter Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+6.35 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Damien Harris has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Kendrick Bourne has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 13 games (+10.90 Units / 76% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.80 Units / 71% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.75 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2H Moneyline in their last 6 games (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in their last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 75% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 63% ROI)

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts have gone 3-5 (-2.35 Units / -27.49% ROI).

  • Colts are 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units / -13.33% ROI
  • Colts are 1-7 when betting the Over for -6.7 Units / -76.14% ROI
  • Colts are 7-1 when betting the Under for +5.9 Units / ROI

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 4-3 (+0.8 Units / 9.36% ROI).

  • Patriots are 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -21.65% ROI
  • Patriots are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Patriots are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Colts are 2-5-1 (.250) when playing in warm weather since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .493.

The Colts are undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 10 rushes of four or more yards since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .675.

The Colts are 2-7 (.222) when allowing 3 or more sacks since the 2021 season — tied for 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .370.

The Colts are 6-10-1 (.353) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season — 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .484.

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Patriots are undefeated (5-0) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .579.

The Patriots are undefeated (3-0) when not losing a fumble this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .569.

The Patriots are 4-1 (.800) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season — tied for 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .525.

The Patriots are winless (0-8) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .199.

Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

The Patriots have a third down conversion rate of just 32.0% in the fourth quarter this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Colts defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 19.2% in the 4th quarter this season — second-best in NFL.

The Patriots have scored on 16.7% of their drives in late and close games this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Colts defense has allowed scores on 18.2% of opponent drives in close and late situations this season — second-best in NFL.

The Patriots are averaging just 3.9 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL. The Colts have allowed just 4.0 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the left this season — third-best in NFL.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats for Week 9

The Colts are averaging 15.3 drives per TD in the 1st half this season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.7.

The Colts have gone three and out 11 times in the 1st quarter this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Colts have scored on 22% of their drives in the 1st half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Colts threw the ball 33% of the time (33 Pass Attempts/99 plays) on second and 4-7 yards to go last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats for Week 9

The Patriots have started 14 drives inside opposing territory this season — most in NFL.

The Patriots have not recorded a TD in 19 drives in the 1st quarter this season — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 6.4.

The Patriots have committed 18 turnovers this season — most in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats for Week 9

The Colts defense has allowed a passer rating of just 41.9 on 3rd and short (49 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 100.1.

The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 31% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Colts defense allowed 12 TD passes in close and late situations last season — most in NFL.

The Colts defense has allowed a passer rating of just 16.1 when blitzing (8 Pass Attempts) since Week 4 — best in NFL; League Avg: 86.0.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats for Week 9

58% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 4th quarter in Week 7 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

The Patriots defense allowed 7 rushing TDs on 73 carries (10.4 Carries Per TD) in the red zone last season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

The Patriots defense has allowed 11 rushing TDs on 97 carries (8.8 Carries Per TD) in the red zone since the 2021 season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

The Patriots defense allowed a passer rating of just 73.4 (539 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.