Colts vs Steelers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 9

BetMGM Betting Oct 28, 2025, 9:20 PM

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Pittsburgh Steelers fans wave their Terrible Towels during the first half of an NFL football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

The Colts are -3 point favorites vs the Steelers
Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Indianapolis Colts (7-1-0) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3-0) on Nov. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.

The Colts are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).

The Colts vs. Steelers Over/Under is 50.5 total points for the game.

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Colts vs. Steelers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Colts	-3 -115	50.5 -110	-165
Steelers	+3 -105	50.5 -110	140

Colts vs. Steelers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Colts will win this game with 60.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Colts vs Steelers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread with 59.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today

Alec Pierce has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.75 Units / 60% ROI)
Michael Pittman has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.60 Units / 31% ROI)
Alec Pierce has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
Daniel Jones has hit the Completions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.85 Units / 40% ROI)
Daniel Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 36% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Steelers Player Prop Best Bets Today

DK Metcalf has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.35 Units / 46% ROI)
Kenneth Gainwell has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Aaron Rodgers has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 31% ROI)
Jonnu Smith has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
Kenneth Gainwell has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.75 Units / 59% ROI)

Colts Best Bets:

The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.20 Units / 41% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 39% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 31% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.85 Units / 46% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.60 Units / 29% ROI)

Steelers Best Bets:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.60 Units / 42% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.30 Units / 34% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.06 Units / 21% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.85 Units / 31% ROI)

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 6-2 (+3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI).

Colts are 7-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.25 Units / 23.81% ROI
Colts are 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
Colts are 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / ROI

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers are 3-4 (-1.3 Units / -17.33% ROI).

Steelers are 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.05 Units / -8.71% ROI
Steelers are 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
Steelers are 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have targeted TEs 32% of the time (67 Pass Attempts/210 plays) this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Steelers go for it on fourth down 14% of the time in short yardage situations this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

The Steelers have targeted TEs 36% of the time (36 Pass Attempts/100 plays) since Week 5 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Steelers have not faced a blitz on 3rd and short this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Steelers defense has allowed 293.4 receiving yards per game (2,054/7) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 229.6.

The Steelers defense allowed 6 receptions for 20+ yards in Week 8 — most in NFL.

The Steelers defense has allowed 7.3 yards after the catch (328 RAC / 45 receptions) to TEs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.9.

The Steelers defense has blitzed on 21% of plays this season — 3rd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers