Colts vs Texans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 1

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 11, 2022, 8:15 AM
  • The Colts (0-0) are -7 point favorites vs the Texans (0-0)
  • Watch the game on CBS
  • Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points

The Indianapolis Colts (0-0) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (0-0) on Sep. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm ET in Houston.

The Colts are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).

The Colts vs. Texans Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.

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Colts vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 1

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Indianapolis Colts-7 -11045.5 -110-350
Houston Texans +7 -11045.5 -110+260

Colts vs. Texans Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Colts will win this Week 1 NFL matchup with 56.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Colts and Texans, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.85 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Michael Pittman has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.95 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Mo Alie-Cox has hit the Receptions Over in his last 4 away games (+5.15 Units / 113% ROI)
  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Carries Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Davis Mills has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 4 games at home (+6.05 Units / 115% ROI)
  • Nico Collins has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Davis Mills has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Davis Mills has hit the Completions Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Davis Mills has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.65 Units / 47% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Texans vs Colts

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Jonathan Taylor +280
Michael Pittman +700
Nyheim Hines +900
Brandin Cooks +900
Mo Alie-Cox +1000

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Texans vs Colts

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Jonathan Taylor -350
Brandin Cooks -140
Michael Pittman +110
Dameon Pierce +130
Nyheim Hines +155

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Texans vs Colts

Player Name Over Under
Brandin Cooks 60.5 -115 60.5 -115
Nico Collins 41.5 -110 41.5 -115
Parris Campbell 30.5 -110 30.5 -115
Alec Pierce 37.5 -115 37.5 -115
Nyheim Hines 22.5 -115 22.5 -110

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Texans vs Colts

Player Name Over Under
Dameon Pierce 47.5 -115 47.5 -115
Jonathan Taylor 98.5 -110 98.5 -115
  • The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.80 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.80 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.05 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+6.95 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+8.35 Units / 99% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 8 games (+5.05 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.00 Units / 66% ROI)

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Colts were 9-2 (.818) when rushing for 120 or more yards last season — tied for eighth-best in NFL. The Texans allowed an average of 143.1 rushing yards per game last season — second-worst in NFL.

The Colts were 9-4 (.692) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season — tied for ninth-best in NFL. The Texans averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — tied for third-worst in NFL.

The Colts were winless (0-4) when allowing 3 or more sacks last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .357.

The Colts were winless (0-2) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .165.

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Texans were winless (0-10) when scoring less than 22 points last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .222.

The Texans were winless (0-8) when allowing 3 or more sacks last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .357.

The Texans were 1-11 (.083) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .419.

The Texans were winless (0-6) when rushing less than 20 times last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .121.

Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans

The Texans went three and out on 29.1% of their drives last season — worst in NFL. Colts forced three and outs on 22.5% of opponent drives last season — fourth-best in NFL.

Texans RBs averaged just 1.6 yards after contact per carry last season — tied for worst in NFL. The Colts allowed just 1.7 yards after contact per carry to RBs last season — tied for best in NFL.

The Texans have run just 40.4% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2020 season — fourth-worst in NFL. Colts have allowed their opponents to run just 41.7% of plays in their territory since the 2020 season — third-best in NFL.

Colts RBs averaged 2.6 yards after contact per carry last season — second-best in NFL. The Texans allowed 2.1 yards after contact per carry last season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.

Colts RBs averaged 130.5 rushing yards per game last season — second-best in NFL. The Texans allowed an average of 143.1 rushing yards per game last season — second-worst in NFL.

The Colts rushed the ball on 46.2% of plays from scrimmage last season — fifth-highest in NFL. The Texans allowed 4.8 yards per carry last season — tied for third-worst in NFL.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Colts threw the ball 33% of the time (33 Pass Attempts/99 plays) on second and 4-7 yards to go last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

52% of the Colts offense’s first downs (166 of 320) came through the air last season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 64%.

48% of the Colts offense’s first downs (154 of 320) came on the ground last season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

The Colts went three and out on 11% of their drives in the 1st quarter last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Texans ran successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 37% of plays last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 74% of pass attempts in the 2nd half in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Colts defense hurried opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Colts defense pressured opposing QBs on 19% of pass attempts last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Colts defense allowed a passer rating of just 47.5 on 3rd and short (36 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 98.4.

The Colts defense allowed 11 TD passes in close and late situations last season — 2nd-most in NFL.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Texans defense allowed 4 TD passes in Week 18 — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Texans defense allowed 27.4 Points per Game (466/17) last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 23.0.

The Texans defense allowed an average of 2.3 yards after contact per carry (425 carries) to RBs last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.0.

The Texans defense allowed 14.4 points per game to opposing offenses (244 points / 17 games) in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.