Colts vs Texans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

BetMGM Betting Dec 31, 2025, 4:13 PM

min read

A detail view of a Houston Texans helmet on the sideline prior to an NFL preseason football game against the Carolina Panthers, Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025, in Houston. (AP Photo/Maria Lysaker)

(AP Photo/Maria Lysaker)

The Texans are -10.5 point favorites vs the Colts
Total (Over/Under): 39 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Indianapolis Colts (8-8-0) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (11-5-0) on Jan. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Houston, TX.

The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-105).

The Colts vs. Texans Over/Under is 39 total points for the game.

Bet now on Texans vs Colts & all NFL games with BetMGM

Colts vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Colts vs. Texans Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 79.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Colts vs Texans Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread with 53.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Texans vs Colts and all NFL games with BetMGM

Get a New Player Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today

Alec Pierce has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.55 Units / 49% ROI)
Alec Pierce has hit the Longest Reception Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.65 Units / 48% ROI)
Tyler Warren has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
Michael Pittman has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)
Tyler Warren has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.10 Units / 29% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today

Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.15 Units / 45% ROI)
Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.45 Units / 43% ROI)
Woody Marks has hit the Carries Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.90 Units / 56% ROI)
Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.75 Units / 33% ROI)
Woody Marks has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.55 Units / 64% ROI)

Colts Best Bets:

The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 87% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.00 Units / 57% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 3Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 away games (+4.45 Units / 56% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.15 Units / 61% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.80 Units / 15% ROI)

Texans Best Bets:

The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+10.00 Units / 24% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.80 Units / 22% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.15 Units / 21% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.90 Units / 19% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 8-8 (-0.8 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Colts are 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.45 Units / -3.84% ROI
Colts are 8-8 when betting the Over for -0.8 Units / -4.55% ROI
Colts are 8-8 when betting the Under for -0.8 Units / ROI

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 9-7 (+1.25 Units / 7.08% ROI).

Texans are 11-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.4 Units / 20.85% ROI
Texans are 5-10 when betting the Over for -6 Units / -34.09% ROI
Texans are 10-5 when betting the Under for +4.5 Units / 25.57% ROI

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Texans defense has allowed scores on 34% of opponent drives (60/175) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 68%.

Only 34% of the plays run against the Texans have been in their own territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Texans defense has allowed scores on 35% of opponent drives (28/81) in the 1st half this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 72%.

The Texans defense has allowed just 22.1 points per game to opposing offenses (353 points / 16 games) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 38.4.

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have scored on 90% of their drives (36/40) in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 58%.

The Colts have run successful plays on 63% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Colts have converted first downs on just 7 of 101 plays (7%) on 1st down since Week 14 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Colts have rushed for 47 TDs this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans