Commanders vs 49ers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 16

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San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan stands on the sidelines during the second half of an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Rams Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
(AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 23, 2022, 10:30 AM
  • The 49ers (10-4) are -7.5 point favorites vs the Commanders (7-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 39.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Washington Commanders (7-6) visit Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers (10-4) on Dec. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EST in Santa Clara.

The 49ers are betting favorites in Week 16, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Commanders vs. 49ers Over/Under is 37.5 total points for the game.

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Commanders vs. 49ers Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 16

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Commanders+6.5 -11037.5 -110+240
49ers -6.5 -11037.5 -110-300

Commanders vs. 49ers Prediction for Week 16

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the 49ers will win this Week 16 game with 78.0% confidence.

Commanders vs 49ers Spread Prediction for Week 16

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the 49ers will cover the spread this Week 16 with 54.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Commanders and 49ers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Logan Thomas has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Brian Robinson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Curtis Samuel has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the Interceptions Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jahan Dotson has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.25 Units / 33% ROI)

Best 49ers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for 49ers players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • George Kittle has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.00 Units / 28% ROI)
  • George Kittle has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Christian McCaffrey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Christian McCaffrey has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jauan Jennings has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for 49ers vs Commanders

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Christian McCaffrey +375
Brandon Aiyuk +800
George Kittle +900
Brian Robinson +1000
Jauan Jennings +1400

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for 49ers vs Commanders

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Christian McCaffrey -165
Brian Robinson +145
Brandon Aiyuk +170
George Kittle +190
Terry McLaurin +290

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for 49ers vs Commanders

Player Name Over Under
Brandon Aiyuk 49.5 -115 49.5 -115
George Kittle 44.5 -115 44.5 -115
Christian Mccaffrey 36.5 -115 36.5 -115
Kyle Juszczyk 7.5 -120 7.5 -110
Curtis Samuel 29.5 -115 29.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for 49ers vs Commanders

Player Name Over Under
Curtis Samuel 11.5 -110 11.5 -120
Taylor Heinicke 13.5 -110 13.5 -120
Brian Robinson Jr. 45.5 -110 45.5 -120
Antonio Gibson 23.5 -120 23.5 -110
Christian Mccaffrey 82.5 -115 82.5 -115
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+7.95 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+7.30 Units / 118% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.85 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+6.00 Units / 101% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.95 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.05 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.40 Units / 39% ROI)

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders have gone 7-6 (+0.4 Units / 2.59% ROI).

  • Commanders are 7-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 20.89% ROI
  • Commanders are 4-9 when betting the Over for -5.9 Units / -38.31% ROI
  • Commanders are 9-4 when betting the Under for +4.6 Units / ROI

49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers have gone 9-5 (+3.5 Units / 22.73% ROI).

  • 49ers are 10-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.25 Units / 9.75% ROI
  • 49ers are 6-8 when betting the Over for -2.8 Units / -18.18% ROI
  • 49ers are 8-6 when betting the Under for +1.4 Units / 9.09% ROI

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers

The Commanders are undefeated (5-0) when leading at the end of the first half this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .709.

The Commanders are 2-10 (.167) when allowing 250 or more passing yards since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.

The Commanders are 4-9-1 (.286) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .628.

The Commanders are winless (0-3) when rushing less than 25 times this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .318.

San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The 49ers are undefeated (13-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .546.

The 49ers are 9-3 (.750) vs top 10 pass offenses since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .361.

The 49ers are undefeated (11-0) vs bottom 10 run offenses since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .548.

The 49ers are 17-3 (.850) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .511.

Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have scored on 9.1% of their drives in the fourth quarter since Week 12 — second-worst in NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed scores on 11.1% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since Week 12 — tied for best in NFL.

49ers WRs have averaged 6.3 yards after the catch this season — best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 4.9 yards after catch per reception to WRs this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

49ers RBs have 5 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-most in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 6 receiving touchdowns to RBs this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Commanders have scored on 30.4% of their drives this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The 49ers defense has allowed scores on 24.5% of opponent drives this season — best in NFL.

The Commanders have run successful plays on just 41.6% of pass attempts this season — fifth-worst in NFL. 49ers have allowed successful plays on just 41.8% of pass attempts this season — fourth-best in NFL.

The Commanders have a third down conversion rate of just 8.0% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — second-worst in NFL. The 49ers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 13.2% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — fifth-best in NFL.

Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Commanders have started 20 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — most in NFL.

The Commanders threw the ball 30% of the time (21 Pass Attempts/70 plays) on 3rd and short last season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 36% of pass attempts in the 1st half this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Commanders ran successful plays on 15% of pass attempts in the 1st half in Week 15 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats for Week 16

The 49ers have not recorded a TD in 11 drives in the 4th quarter since Week 12 of the 2021 Season — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.0.

The 49ers have a third down conversion rate of 31% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2021 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The 49ers have completed passes for 20+ yards on 107 of their 947 total passing attempts (11%) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9%.

The 49ers have a third down conversion rate of 35% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Commanders defense has allowed 15 touchdown receptions to RBs since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Commanders defense allowed first downs on 48% of plays on 3rd down last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Commanders defense has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 14 of 436 attempts (3%) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1%.

The Commanders defense did not record a sack (32 pass attempts) in Week 15 — tied for worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 13.0.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats for Week 16

The 49ers defense has allowed just 13.7 points per game to opposing offenses (192 points / 14 games) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21.1.

The 49ers defense has allowed 87.2 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 128.9.

The 49ers defense has allowed successful plays on 24% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Only 10% of the plays run against the 49ers have been in the red zone in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.