Commanders vs Bears Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6, TNF

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 13, 2022, 11:05 AM
  • The (4-1) are point favorites vs the (4-1)
  • Total (Over/Under): points
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The Washington Commanders (2-4) visit Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears (2-4) on Oct. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Chicago.

The are betting favorites in Week 6, with the spread sitting at ().

The Commanders vs. Bears Over/Under is total points for the game.

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Commanders vs. Bears Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 6

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Commanders
Bears

Commanders vs. Bears Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bears will win this Week 6 game with 48.3% confidence.

Commanders vs Bears Spread Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread this Week 6 with 58.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Commanders and Bears, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.55 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the Interceptions Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Terry McLaurin has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.85 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Carson Wentz has hit the Passing Yards Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+3.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Best Bears Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bears players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Equanimeous St. Brown has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Justin Fields has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+4.95 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Ryan Griffin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Justin Fields has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 12 games (+4.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • David Montgomery has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 52% ROI)
  • First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bears vs Commanders

    Player Name 1st TD Odds
    David Montgomery +650
    Logan Thomas
    Brian Robinson +750
    Antonio Gibson +1000
    Terry McLaurin +1000

    Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bears vs Commanders

    Player Name Anytime TD Odds
    David Montgomery +105
    Logan Thomas
    Darnell Mooney +175
    Brian Robinson +180
    Terry McLaurin +190

    Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bears vs Commanders

    Player Name Over Under
    David Montgomery 15.5 -120 15.5 -110
    Cole Kmet 30.5 -115 30.5 -115
    Darnell Mooney 44.5 -115 44.5 -115
    Curtis Samuel 47.5 -120 47.5 -115
    Terry McLaurin 54.5 -115 54.5 -115

    Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bears vs Commanders

    Player Name Over Under
    David Montgomery 62.5 -120 62.5 -115
    Justin Fields 42.5 -115 42.5 -115
    Khalil Herbert 26.5 -110 26.5 -120
    Carson Wentz 11.5 -120 11.5 -110
    Robinson Jr 46.5 -115 46.5 -115
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.45 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have covered the 4Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.40 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+5.85 Units / 112% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have scored last in their last 5 games at home (+5.40 Units / 95% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.40 Units / 72% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.80 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders have gone 1-4 (-3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI).

    • Commanders are 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -55.65% ROI
    • Commanders are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
    • Commanders are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / ROI

    Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears have gone 2-2 (-0.3 Units / -5.36% ROI).

    • Bears are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 4.42% ROI
    • Bears are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
    • Bears are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI

    Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears

    The Commanders are 2-12 (.143) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .428.

    The Commanders are winless (0-4) since Week 2 — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

    The Commanders are winless (0-4) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .471.

    The Commanders are 2-5 (.286) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .732.

    Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

    The Bears are winless (0-8) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .377.

    The Bears were winless (0-7) vs top 10 offenses last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .376.

    The Bears are winless (0-4) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .279.

    The Bears are winless (0-9) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .195.

    Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears

    The Bears have run successful plays on just 33.3% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — fourth-worst in NFL. Commanders have allowed successful plays on just 40.0% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — second-best in NFL.

    The Bears have been successful on just 34.7% of plays they have run this season — worst in NFL. Commanders have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 37.3% of plays this season — tied for third-best in NFL.

    The Bears have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 46% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL. The Commanders have pressured opposing QBs on 29.4% of passing plays this season — fourth-best in NFL.

    The Commanders have a third down conversion rate of 52.2% in the fourth quarter this season — second-best in NFL. The Bears defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 56.0% in the 4th quarter this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

    The Commanders have a third down conversion rate of 43.8% against the blitz since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Bears defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 48.8% when blitzing since the 2021 season — third-worst in NFL.

    Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats for Week 6

    The Commanders have run 19% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

    The Commanders have run successful plays on 25% of plays in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

    The Commanders have run successful plays on 19% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

    The Commanders have run 32% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

    Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats for Week 6

    The Bears have thrown the ball 33% of the time (87 Pass Attempts/264 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

    The Bears have been sacked on 17% of pass attempts (18/105) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

    The Bears have averaged 139.0 passing yards per game (695/5) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 243.3.

    The Bears have allowed a QB Hit on 34% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

    Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats for Week 6

    The Commanders defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 9% (1 completions/11 attempts) on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 63%.

    The Commanders defense has allowed successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

    The Commanders defense has allowed successful plays on 30% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

    The Commanders defense has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 6 of 121 attempts (5%) since Week 2 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1%.

    Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats for Week 6

    The Bears defense has allowed 47 of 101 (47%) first downs through the air (47%) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 64%.

    Offenses facing the Bears have thrown the ball 44% of the time (143 Pass Attempts/324 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

    The Bears defense has allowed 54 of 101 (54%) first downs on the ground this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

    The Bears’ opponents have attempted just 28.2 passes per game since the 2021 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 34.4.

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.