Commanders vs Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 8

BetMGM Betting Oct 26, 2025, 10:20 AM

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Fans fly their Kansas City Chiefs flags outside GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium before a game against the Denver Broncos, Sunday, Nov. 10, 2024 in Kansas City, Mo. The Chiefs defeated the Broncos, 16-14. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

(AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

The Chiefs are -12.5 point favorites vs the Commanders
Total (Over/Under): 47 points
Watch this game on ABC | ESPN | ESPN2 | ESPD

The Washington Commanders (3-4-0) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (4-3-0) on Oct. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-110).

The Commanders vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.

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Commanders vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Commanders	+12.5 -110	47 -110	550
Chiefs	-12.5 -110	47 -110	-800

Commanders vs. Chiefs Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 78.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Commanders vs Chiefs Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread with 51.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today

Jayden Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.85 Units / 69% ROI)
Luke McCaffrey has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+6.95 Units / 76% ROI)
Jaylin Lane has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+6.20 Units / 64% ROI)
Jayden Daniels has hit the Interceptions Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.70 Units / 44% ROI)
Deebo Samuel has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.80 Units / 57% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today

Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.85 Units / 64% ROI)
Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 36% ROI)
Kareem Hunt has hit the Receptions Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+7.25 Units / 26% ROI)
Patrick Mahomes has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.10 Units / 31% ROI)
Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.35 Units / 37% ROI)

Commanders Best Bets:

The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.25 Units / 40% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.63 Units / 28% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.66 Units / 18% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+3.40 Units / 11% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.70 Units / 11% ROI)

Chiefs Best Bets:

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.45 Units / 25% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.35 Units / 27% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.30 Units / 18% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+6.25 Units / 16% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 2Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.75 Units / 37% ROI)

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 3-4 (-1.35 Units / -17.88% ROI).

Commanders are 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -19.63% ROI
Commanders are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -3.9% ROI
Commanders are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / ROI

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 4-3 (+0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI).

Chiefs are 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -2.22% ROI
Chiefs are 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
Chiefs are 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

Only 7% of the plays ran against the Chiefs were in their own territory in Week 7 — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 13% of plays in Week 7 — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 9% of rush attempts in Week 7 — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 10% of plays first read passes in Week 7 — best in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Chiefs have averaged -1.11 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 61% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Chiefs have averaged 9.6 yards per play when their QB has scrambled this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 4.4.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 50% of plays this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Kansas City Chiefs