Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 4

min read
AP Photos
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 11:07 AM
  • The Cowboys (2-1) are -3 point favorites vs the Commanders (1-2)
  • Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Washington Commanders (1-2) visit AT&T Stadium to take on the Dallas Cowboys (2-1) on Oct. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Arlington.

The Cowboys are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).

The Commanders vs. Cowboys Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Cowboys vs Commanders & all NFL games with BetMGM

Commanders vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 4

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Commanders+3 -10541.5 -110+140
Cowboys -3 -11541.5 -110-165

Commanders vs. Cowboys Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Cowboys will win this Week 4 game with 65.8% confidence.

Commanders vs Cowboys Spread Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cowboys will cover the spread this Week 4 with 59.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Commanders and Cowboys, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the TD Passes Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.55 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the Interceptions Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.55 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Terry McLaurin has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Logan Thomas has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 59% ROI)

Best Cowboys Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Dak Prescott has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Dalton Schultz has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 29% ROI)
  • James Washington has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Noah Brown has hit the Receptions Over in his last 4 games (+4.80 Units / 113% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Cowboys vs Commanders

Player Name Over Under
Ezekiel Elliott 9.5 -110 9.5 -115
Tony Pollard 13.5 -115 13.5 -110
J.D. McKissic 23.5 -115 23.5 -110
Antonio Gibson 12.5 -120 12.5 -110
Logan Thomas 25.5 -115 25.5 -110

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Cowboys vs Commanders

Player Name Over Under
Ezekiel Elliott 56.5 -115 56.5 -115
Tony Pollard 41.5 -115 41.5 -115
J.D. McKissic 11.5 -115 11.5 -110
Curtis Samuel 8.5 -115 8.5 -115
Antonio Gibson 56.5 -115 56.5 -110
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.25 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have covered the 4Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.35 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2H Moneyline in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.55 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.80 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.00 Units / 67% ROI)

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders have gone 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Commanders are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -30.14% ROI
  • Commanders are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Commanders are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / ROI

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys have gone 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.69% ROI).

  • Cowboys are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 91.67% ROI
  • Cowboys are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Cowboys are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

The Commanders are 2-5 (.286) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .732.

The Commanders are 2-8 (.200) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .631.

The Commanders are 2-10 (.167) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2021 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.

The Commanders are 1-2 (.333) when the opposing team commits less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2021 season — 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .506.

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Cowboys are 6-3 (.667) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 257.4 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — third-worst in NFL.

The Cowboys were undefeated (4-0) vs top 10 run offenses last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .459.

The Cowboys are 8-2 (.800) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season — tied for eighth-best in NFL. The Commanders have intercepted 12 passes since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-fewest in NFL.

The Cowboys are undefeated (5-0) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .445.

Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have a third down conversion rate of just 28.9% this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 30.0% this season — fifth-best in NFL.

The Cowboys have a third down conversion rate of just 17.6% in the second half this season — second-worst in NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 25.0% in the second half this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL.

Cowboys TEs have 11 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for third-most in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 42 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Commanders allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 53.5% of pass attempts last week — second-worst in NFL. The Cowboys have pressured opposing QBs on 51.4% of passing plays in Week 3 — third-best in NFL.

Commanders QBs have given up 15 sacks this season — tied for most in NFL. The Cowboys have sacked the quarterback 13 times this season — most in NFL.

The Commanders have an average drive start position from the 24.7 yard line since the 2021 season — third-worst in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed an average drive start position from the 24.7 yard line since the 2021 season — tied for third-best in NFL.

Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Commanders have started 5 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 1st quarter this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 26% of plays in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Commanders have gone three and out 4 times in the 1st quarter this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Commanders ran successful plays on 10% of pass attempts in the 1st half in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Cowboys have run successful plays on 45% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 30%.

The Cowboys have run 8% of their plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Cowboys converted first downs on just 17 of 95 plays (18%) on 3rd and long last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Cowboys have averaged 28.6 offensive penalty yards per game (573/20) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20.5.

Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

29% of the plays run against the Commanders have been in the red zone in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Commanders defense has allowed 8 TD passes this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Commanders defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 50% last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Commanders defense allowed first downs on 48% of plays on 3rd down last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Cowboys defense averaged 1.5 interceptions per game (26/17) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.8.

The Cowboys defense has sacked opponents 6 times on 1st down this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Cowboys defense pressured opposing QBs on 51% of pass attempts in Week 3 — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Cowboys defense missed 11 tackles in Week 3 — most in NFL.

Looking to place a bet on this game with a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cowboys vs Commanders and all NFL games with BetMGM

Bet on NFL Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated NFL betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.