Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 7

BetMGM Betting Oct 15, 2025, 6:48 PM

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A young fan sands atop a vehicle holding a Dallas Cowboys flag outside Sofi Stadium before a preseason NFL football game between the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, Aug. 11, 2024, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

(AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

The Commanders are -2 point favorites vs the Cowboys
Total (Over/Under): 55 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Washington Commanders (3-3-0) visit AT&T Stadium to take on the Dallas Cowboys (2-3-1) on Oct. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Arlington, TX.

The Commanders are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2 (-110).

The Commanders vs. Cowboys Over/Under is 55 total points for the game.

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Commanders vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Commanders	-2 -110	55 -110	-130
Cowboys	+2 -110	55 -110	110

Commanders vs. Cowboys Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Commanders will win this game with 55.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Commanders vs Cowboys Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cowboys will cover the spread with 54.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today

Jayden Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
Luke McCaffrey has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.95 Units / 77% ROI)
Jaylin Lane has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 63% ROI)
Matt Gay has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.15 Units / 24% ROI)
Deebo Samuel has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.80 Units / 57% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cowboys Player Prop Best Bets Today

Jake Ferguson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.40 Units / 38% ROI)
CeeDee Lamb has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 37% ROI)
George Pickens has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
George Pickens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+3.90 Units / 22% ROI)
Brandon Aubrey has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+3.90 Units / 14% ROI)

Commanders Best Bets:

The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 40% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.72 Units / 28% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.45 Units / 17% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.00 Units / 21% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 away games (+4.80 Units / 29% ROI)

Cowboys Best Bets:

The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 2Q Spread in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.60 Units / 55% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+8.40 Units / 44% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.00 Units / 27% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 21% ROI)

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 3-3 (-0.25 Units / -3.88% ROI).

Commanders are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -11.34% ROI
Commanders are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -19.7% ROI
Commanders are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / ROI

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys are 3-3 (-0.2 Units / -3.08% ROI).

Cowboys are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -21.34% ROI
Cowboys are 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI
Cowboys are 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys defense have allowed 11.1 yards per play first read passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.9.

The Cowboys defense have allowed 0.63 epa per play first read passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.25.

The Cowboys defense have allowed 6.9 yards per play on motion plays since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.

The Cowboys defense has allowed an average of 25.8 fantasy points per game to QBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17.1.

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Cowboys have run the ball on 11% of plays (8 carries/72 plays) on 3rd down this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 26%.

The Cowboys have committed 12 turnovers in the red zone since the 2024 season — most in NFL.

The Cowboys have run the ball on 29% of plays (5 carries/17 plays) on 3rd and short this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

8% of the Cowboys offense’s first downs (1 of 13) came on the ground in Week 6 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys