Commanders vs Texans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 17, 2022, 1:45 PM
  • The Commanders (5-5) are -3 point favorites vs the Texans (1-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 40.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Washington Commanders (6-5) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (1-8) on Nov. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Houston.

The are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Commanders vs. Texans Over/Under is total points for the game.

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Commanders vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Commanders
Texans

Commanders vs. Texans Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Commanders will win this Week 11 game with 62.3% confidence.

Commanders vs Texans Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread this Week 11 with 56.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Commanders and Texans, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the Interceptions Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the Passing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Logan Thomas has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Curtis Samuel has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Brian Robinson has hit the Carries Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Davis Mills has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+7.05 Units / 117% ROI)
  • Nico Collins has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.40 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Dameon Pierce has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Davis Mills has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Dameon Pierce has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+3.60 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+7.30 Units / 71% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+7.05 Units / 134% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+6.90 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+8.90 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+8.65 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.85 Units / 49% ROI)

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders have gone 5-4 (+0.6 Units / 5.43% ROI).

  • Commanders are 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 35% ROI
  • Commanders are 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • Commanders are 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / ROI

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans have gone 4-4 (-0.4 Units / -4% ROI).

  • Texans are 1-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.4 Units / -48.89% ROI
  • Texans are 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.55 Units / -15.58% ROI
  • Texans are 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.09% ROI

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Commanders are 2-13 (.133) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .428.

The Commanders are 4-2 (.667) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .410.

The Commanders are 1-5 (.167) when not forcing a fumble this season — tied for 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .438.

The Commanders are 3-1 (.750) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .584.

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Texans are winless (0-3-1) at home this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .559.

The Texans are winless (0-6-1) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.

The Texans are winless (0-8-1) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .384.

The Texans are 1-17-1 (.053) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.

Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans

The Texans have run successful plays on just 40.9% of pass attempts this season — fourth-worst in NFL. Commanders have allowed successful plays on just 41.3% of pass attempts this season — third-best in NFL.

The Texans have a third down conversion rate of just 12.1% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 6.5% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — best in NFL.

The Texans have run successful plays on just 34.5% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — second-worst in NFL. Commanders have allowed successful plays on just 41.2% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — third-best in NFL.

The Commanders have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 29.8% of pass attempts since Week 7 — second-worst in NFL. The Texans have pressured opposing QBs on 25.9% of passing plays since Week 7 — third-best in NFL.

Commanders WRs averaged 9.8 yards after the catch last week — third-best in NFL. The Texans allowed 14.4 yards after catch per reception to WRs in Week 10 — worst in NFL.

Commanders WRs gained 185 yards on 12 receptions (15.4 YPR) last week — tied for fourth-best in NFL. The Texans allowed 22.3 Yards Per Reception to WRs in Week 10 — worst in NFL.

Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Commanders have run 36% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Commanders are averaging 12.2 drives per TD in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 34% of pass attempts in the 1st half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 30% of plays in the 1st quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Texans ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans have converted first downs on just 47 of 225 plays (21%) in close and late situations since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

The Texans are averaging 7.2 drives per TD in the 2nd half since the 2021 season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.4.

Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Commanders defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 29% (6 completions/21 attempts) on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 64%.

The Commanders defense has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 11 of 315 attempts (4%) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1%.

The Commanders defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 50% last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Commanders defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (24 completions/56 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 67%.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Texans defense has allowed 183.8 rushing yards per game (1,654/9) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 122.7.

The Texans defense has allowed 187.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 128.4.

The Texans defense has allowed an average of 28.0 fantasy points per game as a unit to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17.8.

Opponents have run the ball 33.0 times per game against The Texans defense (297 carries / 9 games) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 26.0.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.