- The Commanders are a 5.5-point home favorite against the Bears.
- The Commanders have lost each of their last three Monday games as favorites.
- My Commanders vs Bears prediction depends on Chicago’s injury news.
Following a Week 5 bye week, the Bears travel to D.C. for a rematch with the Commanders on MNF.
Chicago famously lost on a Jayden Daniels Hail Mary last year, late in October. Entering this game, Ben Johnson’s team has won two in a row to erase a 0-2 start.
Washington moved to 3-2 with a 27-10 win over the Chargers on Sunday. Daniels threw for 226 yards and a touchdown in his return as Washington covered as three-point dogs.
Bet on Commanders vs. Bears and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Commanders vs. Bears: NFL Week 6 Odds
Commanders vs. Bears Prediction
Sunday, October 5
Based purely on the number and Chicago’s offensive edge over Washington, my Commanders vs Bears prediction is the Bears Spread (+4.5, -110).
Personally, I want to see if T.J. Edwards and Kyler Gordon return from injury on Sunday. That would immediately bolster a Chicago defense that sits 23rd in defensive DVOA.
Essentially, this matchup comes down to which offense better exploits its advantage.
Chicago ranks 14th in pass offense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. On MNF, Johnson’s offense plays a Commanders defense 25th in the corresponding defensive category.
But I simultaneously worry about Chicago’s run defense.
The Bears rank 28th in rush defense DVOA. Meanwhile, Washington ranks sixth on offense. Before the bye week, Chicago allowed 240 rushing yards to the Raiders!
Of course, both Grady Jarrett and Edwards missed the game. Assuming both return, the unit offers hope for a step forward.
Plus, Monday’s game offers a decent sell-high spot on Washington. Although the team won 27-10, Washington turned the Chargers over twice inside their own 30-yard line.
Included in that output? A Mike Sainristil interception at the goal line.
Washington scored 14 points off those two turnovers. For all of Chicago’s inconsistencies, they’ve taken care of the ball well.
Off extended rest, Chicago could prove a live underdog, especially with the revenge factor incorporated.
That said, I’ll wait for personnel news to arrive before making a final prediction.
Betting Commanders vs. Bears: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money | % of ML Bets | % of ML Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 39% | 44% | 64% | 59% |
| Commanders | 61% | 56% | 36% | 41% |
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