Commanders vs Giants: NFL Week 1 Odds, Prediction

Fresh off an appearance in the NFC Championship ga]me, the Commanders begin the 2025 season at home against the Giants. 

Washington won 12 games last season, easily clearing its season win total (6.5). After the run, Washington now finds itself amongst the favorites in the Super Bowl odds. 

The Giants sit on the opposite end of the spectrum after a 3-14 season. This offseason, New York made changes at quarterback, signing Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston. 

Bet on Commanders vs. Giants and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

Commanders vs Giants: NFL Week 1 Odds

• Date: Sunday, September 7
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Venue: Northwest Stadium (Landover, MD)

Commanders vs Giants Prediction

Based on the Commanders’ penchant for playing close games and Russell Wilson’s ATS success as a dog, my Commanders vs Giants prediction is the Giants Spread (+6, -110). 

My initial reaction to this line is that it’s likely to prove a popular parlay and teaser leg in favor of the Commanders. Last season, Washington finished 2-0 against the Giants. 

But New York stayed within this number on both occasions. In Week 2 at Washington, New York lost by three in a game where their kicker aggregated an injury on the first play of the game. 

In those two games, the Giants ran the ball at will against Washington. 

From a yards gained standpoint, New York rushed for over 125 yards in both meetings. Both games ranked among New York’s five-best rushing outputs of the season. 

While Washington possessed one of the league’s best offenses last season, the defense proved a liability. 

Last year, Washington finished 23rd in defensive DVOA against the fourth-easiest set of offenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

If Washington fails to improve defensively, it leaves a backdoor cover open for the Giants as big underdogs.

Plus, assuming Wilson starts, bettors are backing a quarterback who has excelled as a dog in his career. 

In 64 career starts as a pup, Wilson recorded a 40-22-2 ATS record. At +6.5 or higher: 10-3 ATS. 

History also suggests Week 1 presents a prime spot to back New York. 

Since 2004, divisional dogs in games 1-2 are 62-23-3 ATS (72.9%), assuming two more factors:

• The dog failed to reach the postseason the prior season
• The dog’s margin in the last head-to-head meeting falls between -13 and +4

As a result, I like the Giants to cover in Week 1 so long as they remain at +6.5 or better. 

Betting Commanders vs Giants: NFL Public Betting

Data is reflective as of Tuesday, September 2.