Cowboys vs Browns Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 1

Cleveland Browns' Denzel Ward (21) plays during an NFL football game against the Washington Commanders, Sunday, Jan. 1, 2023, in Landover, Md. Browns top cornerback Denzel Ward cleared concussion protocol and will start in Sunday's season opener against Cincinnati, giving Cleveland's secondary its best player as it tries to stop Joe Burrow and his trio of receivers.
(AP Photo/Daniel Kucin Jr., File)
  • The Browns are -2.5 point favorites vs the Cowboys
  • Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
  • Watch this game on FOX

The Dallas Cowboys (0-0-0) visit Cleveland Browns Stadium to take on the Cleveland Browns (0-0-0) on Sep. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.

The Browns are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Cowboys vs. Browns Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.

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Cowboys vs. Browns Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Cowboys+2.5 -10541.5 -110+115
Browns -2.5 -11541.5 -110-140

Cowboys vs. Browns Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Cowboys will win this game with 51.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Cowboys vs Browns Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cowboys will cover the spread with 57.1% confidence.


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Best Cowboys Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.40 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Brandin Cooks has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.70 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Dak Prescott has hit the Passing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.75 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Dak Prescott has hit the Longest Rush Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Longest Rush Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.35 Units / 36% ROI)

Best Browns Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Browns players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • David Njoku has hit the Receptions Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+14.55 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Dustin Hopkins has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.25 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 55% ROI)
  • David Njoku has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 57% ROI)
  • David Njoku has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.65 Units / 47% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Browns vs Cowboys

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Jerome Ford (CLE) +650
CeeDee Lamb (Dal) +750

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Browns vs Cowboys

Player Name Over Under
Jake Ferguson (DAL) 39.5 -110 39.5 -120
David Njoku (CLE) 44.5 -120 44.5 -110
Jerry Jeudy (CLE) 35.5 -115 35.5 -115
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 83.5 -120 83.5 -115
Amari Cooper (CLE) 57.5 -115 57.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Browns vs Cowboys

Player Name Over Under
Deshaun Watson (CLE) 21.5 -110 21.5 -120
Dak Prescott (DAL) 11.5 -115 11.5 -115
Jerome Ford (CLE) 51.5 -120 51.5 -115
Ezekiel Elliott (Dal) 34.5 -120 34.5 -110
Rico Dowdle (DAL) 25.5 -115 25.5 -115
  • The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.10 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.10 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+5.00 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.85 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+8.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games (+6.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.20 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+6.05 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.50 Units / 27% ROI)

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Cowboys went 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Cowboys are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -31.43% ROI
  • Cowboys are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Cowboys are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI

Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Browns went 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Browns are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.6 Units / -100% ROI
  • Browns are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Browns are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns

The Cowboys were 12-1 (.923) when forcing 1 or more turnovers last season — best in NFL. The Browns turned the ball over 38 times last season — most in NFL.

The Cowboys were 12-1 (.923) when forcing 1 or more turnovers last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .594.

The Cowboys were 11-1 (.917) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .570.

The Cowboys are 11-1 (.917) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .498.

Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

The Browns were undefeated (4-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .536.

The Browns were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.

The Browns were undefeated (3-0) vs top 10 pass offenses last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .424.

The Browns were undefeated (5-0) vs top 10 run defenses last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .488.

Additional Matchup Notes for Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns

The Browns ran successful plays on just 35.3% of pass attempts against a heavy rush last season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Cowboys allowed successful plays on just 26.1% of pass attempts with a heavy rush last season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Browns have averaged just -0.10 epa per play with motion since the 2022 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed just -0.08 epa per play against motion since the 2022 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Browns ran successful plays on 53.1% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-best in NFL. The Cowboys allowed successful plays on 61.1% of pass attempts on their own side of the field in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Cowboys have run successful plays on just 42.6% of rush attempts against a base rush since the 2022 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Browns have allowed successful plays on just 44.3% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2022 season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Cowboys ran successful plays on 65.2% of rush attempts with motion in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL. The Browns allowed successful plays on 54.8% of rush attempts against motion in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Cowboys were 12-1 (.923) when forcing 1 or more turnovers last season — best in NFL. The Browns turned the ball over 38 times last season — most in NFL.

Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats

The Cowboys ran successful plays on 100% of rush attempts on motion plays in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Cowboys converted first downs on 25 of 60 plays (42%) when their QB was scrambling last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Cowboys ran successful plays on 43% of pass attempts on passes when their QB was pressured last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

The Cowboys ran successful plays on 77% of plays on motion plays in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Cleveland Browns Offense: Important Stats

The Browns ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 18 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Browns ran successful plays on 15% of plays on motion plays in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Browns ran successful plays on 36% of pass attempts on motion plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Browns ran successful plays on 35% of plays on motion plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats

The Cowboys defense has allowed a passer rating of just 63.7 with a light front (309 Pass Attempts) since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 84.1.

The Cowboys defense allowed 0.55 epa per play with a light rush last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

The Cowboys defense allowed a passer rating of just 2.5 with tight coverage (132 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 21.9.

The Cowboys defense have allowed -0.23 epa per play with a light front since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

Cleveland Browns Defense: Important Stats

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 11% of plays on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 33%.

The Browns defense allowed -0.11 epa per play first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.20.

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 38% of plays first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.