Cowboys vs Buccaneers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFC Wild Card Playoffs

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 16, 2023, 10:01 AM
  • The Cowboys (12-5) are -2.5 point favorites vs the Buccaneers (8-9)
  • Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
  • Watch the game on ABC/ESPN

The Dallas Cowboys (12-5) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) on Monday, Jan. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Tampa for this NFC Wild Card game.

The Cowboys are betting favorites in this NFC Wild Card game, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.

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Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under, NFC Wild Card Game:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Cowboys-2.5 -11545.5 -110-145
Buccaneers +2.5 -10545.5 -110+120

Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Prediction for NFC Wild Card game

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Cowboys will win this NFC Wild Card game with 64.0% confidence.

Cowboys vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction for NFC Wild Card game

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cowboys will cover the spread in this NFC Wild Card game with 59.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Cowboys and Buccaneers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Cowboys Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players for this NFC Wild Card game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dak Prescott has hit the Interceptions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.60 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.05 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Noah Brown has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Tony Pollard has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.80 Units / 58% ROI)

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for this NFC Wild Card game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tom Brady has hit the Completions Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.90 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Tom Brady has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.60 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Chris Godwin has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.60 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Tom Brady has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Rachaad White has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Buccaneers vs Cowboys

Player Name Over Under
Cade Otton 23.5 -110 23.5 -120
Tony Pollard 22.5 -115 22.5 -120
Michael Gallup 36.5 -120 36.5 -110
CeeDee Lamb 74.5 -115 74.5 -115
Leonard Fournette 28.5 -115 28.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Buccaneers vs Cowboys

Player Name Over Under
Tom Brady 0.5 +190 0.5 -250
Leonard Fournette 36.5 -110 36.5 -120
Ezekiel Elliott 48.5 -115 48.5 -115
Tony Pollard 48.5 -110 48.5 -120
Dak Prescott 16.5 -115 16.5 -115
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.30 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.40 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+10.05 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.20 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys have gone 10-7 (+2.3 Units / 12.37% ROI).

  • Cowboys are 12-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 8.5% ROI
  • Cowboys are 9-8 when betting the Over for +0.2 Units / 1.07% ROI
  • Cowboys are 8-9 when betting the Under for -1.9 Units / ROI

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers have gone 4-12 (-9.4 Units / -49.74% ROI).

  • Buccaneers are 8-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.9 Units / -31.27% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 6-11 when betting the Over for -6.1 Units / -32.62% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 11-6 when betting the Under for +4.4 Units / 23.53% ROI

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Cowboys are 6-1 (.857) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent this season — sixth-best in NFL. The Buccaneers has allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 22 s this season — second-highest in NFL.

The Cowboys are 7-1 (.875) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .496.

The Cowboys are winless (0-1) when rushing at least 4 yards less than 5 times in a game this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .352.

The Cowboys are 9-1 (.900) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .444.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

The Buccaneers are 5-2 (.714) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .492.

The Buccaneers are undefeated (8-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .643.

The Buccaneers are 2-8 (.200) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .414.

The Buccaneers are 7-2 (.778) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent this season — tied for 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .654.

Additional Matchup Notes for Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have scored on 28.6% of their drives in the second half this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Cowboys defense has allowed scores on 26.5% of opponent drives in the second half this season — fourth-best in NFL.

Buccaneers WRs have been targeted 459 times this season — most in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed an average of 24.1 fantasy points per game to WRs this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers went three and out on 45.5% of their drives last week — second-worst in NFL. Cowboys forced three and outs on 40% of opponent drives in Week 18 — tied for third-best in NFL.

The Cowboys have gone three and out on 30% of their drives since Week 15 — third-worst in NFL. Buccaneers have forced three and outs on 31.4% of opponent drives since Week 15 — second-best in NFL.

The Cowboys have run successful plays on just 36.7% of rush attempts since Week 15 — fifth-worst in NFL. Buccaneers have allowed successful plays on just 36.9% of rush attempts since Week 15 — fourth-best in NFL.

Cowboys WRs have 58 receptions in 4 games (14.5 per game) since Week 15 — fifth-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 14.2 receptions per game to WRs since Week 15 — fourth-worst in NFL.

Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats for NFC Wild Card game

The Cowboys went three and out on 67% of their drives in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Cowboys ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 3rd quarter in Week 18 — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Cowboys have scored 5.0 points per Red Zone drive this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 4.3.

The Cowboys ran successful plays on 8% of rush attempts in the 1st half in Week 18 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats for NFC Wild Card game

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 0% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Buccaneers have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 12% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The Buccaneers averaged 316.6 passing yards per game (5,383/17) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 244.0.

The Buccaneers converted first downs on 53 of 70 plays (76%) on 3rd and short last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 62%.

Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats for NFC Wild Card game

The Cowboys defense has forced 21 fumbles this season — most in NFL.

The Cowboys defense pressured opposing QBs 20 times in Week 17 — most in NFL.

The Cowboys defense has averaged 1.2 interceptions per game (42/34) since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 0.8.

The Cowboys defense allowed successful plays on 36% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats for NFC Wild Card game

The Buccaneers defense has blitzed on 23% of plays since the 2021 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

46% of the plays ran against the Buccaneers were in the red zone in the 3rd quarter in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

Opponents ran the ball 21.5 times per game against The Buccaneers defense (365 carries / 17 games) last season — tied for lowest in NFL; League Avg: 25.9.

Offenses facing the Buccaneers threw the ball 62% of the time (680 Pass Attempts/1,097 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.