Cowboys vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 3

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(AP Photo/Danny Karnik)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 19, 2023, 3:38 PM
  • The Cowboys are -12.5 point favorites vs the Cardinals
  • Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Dallas Cowboys (2-0) visit State Farm Stadium to take on the Arizona Cardinals (0-2) on Sep. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Glendale.

The Cowboys are betting favorites in this Week 3 matchup, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-110).

The Cowboys vs. Cardinals Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Cowboys vs. Cardinals Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Cowboys-12.5 -11043.5 -110-700
Cardinals +12.5 -11043.5 -110+500

Cowboys vs. Cardinals Prediction

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Cowboys will win this Week 3 game with 77.0% confidence.

Cowboys vs Cardinals Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cowboys will cover the spread with 55.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Cowboys and Cardinals, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Cowboys Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players this Week 3 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dak Prescott has hit the Interceptions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.65 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Michael Gallup has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.30 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Tony Pollard has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.85 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Dak Prescott has hit the TD Passes Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.35 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Dak Prescott has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 90% ROI)

Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cardinals players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • James Conner has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • James Conner has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Kyler Murray has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • James Conner has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.30 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Zach Ertz has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.10 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2H Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.80 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 2H Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have covered the 2Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.95 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+2.55 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+2.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 20 games (+2.20 Units / 10% ROI)

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys went 2-0 (+2 Units / 86.96% ROI).

  • Cowboys are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 33.61% ROI
  • Cowboys are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Cowboys are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / ROI

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cardinals went 2-0 (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Cardinals are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Cardinals are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Cardinals are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Arizona Cardinals

The Cowboys were undefeated (6-0) when not throwing an interception in the 2022 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .618.

The Cowboys are undefeated (4-0) after a home loss since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .458.

The Cowboys are 8-1 (.889) after a loss since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .461.

The Cowboys were undefeated (4-0) after a loss in the 2022 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .463.

Arizona Cardinals: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

The Cardinals were winless (0-4) when within 7 points at the two minute warning in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .492.

The Cardinals are winless (0-6) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .493.

The Cardinals were winless (0-6) when allowing more than 5 yards per rush in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .448.

The Cardinals were winless (0-11) when scoring less than 22 points in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .273.

Additional Matchup Notes for Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have a third down conversion rate of just 12.9% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2022 season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Cowboys defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 13.2% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2022 season — third-best in NFL.

The Cardinals have run just 11.4% offensive plays in the red zone since the 2022 season — tied for second-worst in NFL. Cowboys has allowed their opponent to run just 11.8% of plays in the red zone since the 2022 season — third-best in NFL.

The Cardinals have thrown for just 6.0 yards per attempt since the 2022 season — worst in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed just 6.0 yards per dropback since the 2022 season — tied for fourth-best in NFL.

The Cowboys have run successful plays on 50.2% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2022 season — second-best in NFL. Cardinals have allowed successful plays on 52.1% of pass attempts on their own side of the field since the 2022 season — fourth-worst in NFL.

Cowboys RBs have averaged 5.7 touches per game in the red zone since the 2022 season — second-highest in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed 17 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone to RBs since the 2022 season — tied for second-most in NFL.

Cowboys RBs have 20 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2022 season — second-most in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed 22 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2022 season — third-most in NFL.

Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats

The Cowboys have run 30% of their plays in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Cowboys have run 38% of their plays in the red zone in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Cowboys have run 48% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Cowboys have run 69% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Arizona Cardinals Offense: Important Stats

The Cardinals have rushed for 20+ yards 4 times this season — most in NFL.

The Cardinals have targeted TEs 38% of the time (23 Pass Attempts/61 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Cardinals started 9 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season — most in NFL.

The Cardinals have run successful plays on 18% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats

The Cowboys defense has not allowed a successful play on any pass attempt in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Cowboys defense has allowed a passer rating of just 33.7 (56 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 89.3.

The Cowboys defense has averaged 2.5 interceptions per game (5/2) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.7.

Only 21% of the plays run against the Cowboys have been in their own territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Arizona Cardinals Defense: Important Stats

The Cardinals defense allowed 6.2 yards after the catch (2,564 RAC / 414 receptions) in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.1.

35% of the plays run against the Cardinals have been in the red zone in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Cardinals defense allowed a Completion Pct of 60% (64 completions/107 attempts) when they pressured the QB in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Cardinals defense has allowed a Completion Pct of 59% (65 completions/110 attempts) when they have pressured the QB since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.