Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 06, 2023, 4:15 PM
  • The Cowboys (12-4) are -5.5 point favorites vs the Commanders (7-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 41 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Dallas Cowboys (12-4) visit FedExField to take on the Washington Commanders (7-8) on Jan. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Landover.

The Cowboys are betting favorites in Week 18, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).

The Cowboys vs. Commanders Over/Under is 40 total points for the game.

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Cowboys vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 18

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Cowboys-7 -11040 -110-350
Commanders +7 -11040 -110+260

Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Cowboys will win this Week 18 game with 74.5% confidence.

Cowboys vs Commanders Spread Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread this Week 18 with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Cowboys and Commanders, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Cowboys Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dak Prescott has hit the Interceptions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.60 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.05 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Tony Pollard has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Dak Prescott has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)

Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brian Robinson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Carson Wentz has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Brian Robinson has hit the Carries Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the Completions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.45 Units / 47% ROI)
  • J.D. McKissic has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+11.15 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+9.30 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.45 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.70 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games (+5.95 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have covered the 2Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 58% ROI)

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys have gone 10-6 (+3.35 Units / 19.09% ROI).

  • Cowboys are 12-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.55 Units / 14.95% ROI
  • Cowboys are 9-7 when betting the Over for +1.3 Units / 7.39% ROI
  • Cowboys are 7-9 when betting the Under for -2.9 Units / ROI

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders have gone 7-8 (-1.8 Units / -10.2% ROI).

  • Commanders are 7-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 7.69% ROI
  • Commanders are 5-10 when betting the Over for -6 Units / -34.09% ROI
  • Commanders are 10-5 when betting the Under for +4.5 Units / 25.57% ROI

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Cowboys are 10-3 (.769) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — sixth-best in NFL. The Commanders have turned the ball over 24 times this season — tied for fourth-most in NFL.

The Cowboys are 6-0 (1.000) when not throwing an interception this season — tied for best in NFL. The Commanders have intercepted 8 passes this season — tied for fourth-fewest in NFL.

The Cowboys are undefeated (6-0) when not throwing an interception this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .614.

The Cowboys are 9-1 (.900) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .439.

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

The Commanders are winless (0-1) when rushing at least 4 yards less than 5 times in a game this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .351.

The Commanders are undefeated (4-0-1) when forcing at least one fumble this season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .599.

The Commanders are 2-6-1 (.222) when intercepting no passes this season — 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .375.

The Commanders are 5-1 (.833) when leading at the end of the first half this season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .706.

Additional Matchup Notes for Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have run just 40.2% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — fourth-worst in NFL. Cowboys have allowed their opponents to run just 39.1% of plays in their territory this season — best in NFL.

The Commanders were successful on just 32.4% of plays they have run last week — fifth-worst in NFL. Cowboys allowed their opponents to be successful on just 32.3% of plays in Week 14 — fourth-best in NFL.

The Commanders have run successful plays on just 18.2% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — second-worst in NFL. The Cowboys have pressured opposing QBs on 27.5% of passing plays this season — best in NFL.

The Cowboys have scored on 51.1% of their drives since Week 14 — best in NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed scores on 43.8% of opponent drives since Week 14 — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Cowboys have an average drive start position from the 28.6 yard line this season — tied for second-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed an average drive start position from the 28.2 yard line this season — second-worst in NFL.

The Cowboys have scored on 54.2% of their drives in the second half since Week 14 — tied for second-best in NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed scores on 61.1% of opponent drives in the second half since Week 14 — worst in NFL.

Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Cowboys have averaged just 3.8 offensive penalty yards per game (15/4) since Week 14 — best in NFL; League Avg: 18.3.

The Cowboys have scored on 46% of their drives in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

The Cowboys have run successful plays on 50% of plays in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Cowboys had a third down conversion rate of 13% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Commanders have started 23 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — most in NFL.

The Commanders have started 5 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 1st quarter since Week 14 — most in NFL.

The Commanders have started 8 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 4th quarter this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Commanders have started 63 drives inside their own 20 yard line this season — tied for most in NFL.

Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Cowboys defense has forced 21 fumbles this season — most in NFL.

The Cowboys defense has averaged a turnover percentage of 3% (66 / 2,121) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 2%.

The Cowboys defense pressured opposing QBs on 49% of pass attempts in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

Only 39% of the plays run against the Cowboys have been in their own territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Commanders defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 50% last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Commanders defense has allowed 15 touchdown receptions to RBs since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Commanders defense allowed 11.8 yards after the catch (106 RAC / 9 receptions) in Week 17 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

The Commanders defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 6% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.