Cowboys vs Jaguars Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 15

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 15, 2022, 11:00 AM
  • The Cowboys (10-3) are -4.5 point favorites vs the Jaguars (5-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Dallas Cowboys (10-3) visit TIAA Bank Field to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8) on Dec. 18. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Jacksonville.

The Cowboys are betting favorites in Week 15, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).

The Cowboys vs. Jaguars Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.

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Cowboys vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 15

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Cowboys-4 -11047.5 -110-200
Jaguars +4 -11047.5 -110+165

Cowboys vs. Jaguars Prediction for Week 15

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Cowboys will win this Week 15 game with 67.5% confidence.

Cowboys vs Jaguars Spread Prediction for Week 15

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cowboys will cover the spread this Week 15 with 52.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Cowboys and Jaguars, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Cowboys Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players for Week 15, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.35 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.15 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Tony Pollard has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Michael Gallup has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Noah Brown has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 55% ROI)

Best Jaguars Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players for Week 15, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Zay Jones has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.10 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Trevor Lawrence has hit the Interceptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.90 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Trevor Lawrence has hit the Completions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Travis Etienne has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.60 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Evan Engram has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+4.50 Units / 26% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Jaguars vs Cowboys

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Tony Pollard +550
Ezekiel Elliott +650
Travis Etienne +700
CeeDee Lamb +750
Christian Kirk +900

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Jaguars vs Cowboys

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Tony Pollard -140
Travis Etienne -120
Ezekiel Elliott -110
CeeDee Lamb +100
Christian Kirk +120

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Jaguars vs Cowboys

Player Name Over Under
Christian Kirk 56.5 -115 56.5 -115
Zay Jones 55.5 -110 55.5 -120
Ezekiel Elliott 9.5 -110 9.5 -120
Tony Pollard 17.5 -115 17.5 -120
Travis Etienne 16.5 -115 16.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Jaguars vs Cowboys

Player Name Over Under
Tony Pollard 52.5 -115 52.5 -115
Dak Prescott 10.5 -115 10.5 -115
Travis Etienne 60.5 -120 60.5 -110
Trevor Lawrence 11.5 -120 11.5 -110
Ezekiel Elliott 54.5 -120 54.5 -110
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2H Moneyline in 15 of their last 18 games (+12.75 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+9.80 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+9.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.80 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.45 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+7.20 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 games (+5.10 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 62% ROI)

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys have gone 8-5 (+2.45 Units / 17.19% ROI).

  • Cowboys are 10-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.65 Units / 19.29% ROI
  • Cowboys are 7-6 when betting the Over for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI
  • Cowboys are 6-7 when betting the Under for -1.7 Units / ROI

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars have gone 5-8 (-3.8 Units / -26.67% ROI).

  • Jaguars are 5-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.15 Units / -19.57% ROI
  • Jaguars are 7-6 when betting the Over for +0.35 Units / 2.44% ROI
  • Jaguars are 6-7 when betting the Under for -1.7 Units / -11.93% ROI

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Cowboys are undefeated (6-0) when not throwing an interception this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .614.

The Cowboys are undefeated (7-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .550.

The Cowboys are 9-2 (.818) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — sixth-best in NFL. The Jaguars have averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

The Cowboys are 7-1 (.875) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .529.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

The Jaguars are 3-5 (.375) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .776.

The Jaguars are winless (0-4) when throwing at least 1 interception this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .374.

The Jaguars are winless (0-6) when scoring less than 22 points this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .262.

The Jaguars are 2-34 (.056) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2020 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .419.

Additional Matchup Notes for Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars ran successful plays on just 29.2% of rush attempts last week — fourth-worst in NFL. Cowboys allowed successful plays on just 27.0% of rush attempts in Week 14 — second-best in NFL.

The Jaguars allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 2.4% of pass attempts last week — best in NFL. The Cowboys have pressured opposing QBs on just 3.7% of passing plays in Week 14 — third-worst in NFL.

The Jaguars have run successful plays on just 33.3% of rush attempts since Week 11 — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. Cowboys have allowed successful plays on just 34.0% of rush attempts since Week 11 — fourth-best in NFL.

The Cowboys had a third down conversion rate of 53.3% last week — second-best in NFL. The Jaguars defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 50.0% in Week 14 — tied for third-worst in NFL.

The Cowboys have run successful plays on 53.5% of pass attempts since Week 11 — third-best in NFL. Jaguars have allowed successful plays on 53.2% of pass attempts since Week 11 — second-worst in NFL.

The Cowboys have run successful plays on 51.8% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field since Week 11 — second-best in NFL. Jaguars have allowed successful plays on 59.2% of pass attempts on their own side of the field since Week 11 — third-worst in NFL.

Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats for Week 15

The Cowboys have started 15 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Cowboys have scored 5.0 points per Red Zone drive this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 4.3.

The Cowboys have started 6 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 4th quarter this season — tied for 2nd-most in NFL.

The Cowboys have run successful plays on 50% of plays in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats for Week 15

The Jaguars targeted TEs 45% of the time (19 Pass Attempts/42 plays) in Week 14 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Jaguars did not target running backs on 0 pass attempts in Week 14 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Jaguars have committed 4 turnovers in the red zone this season — 3rd-most in NFL.

The Jaguars have targeted RBs 7% of the time (8 Pass Attempts/113 plays) since Week 11 — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats for Week 15

The Cowboys defense has averaged 1.2 interceptions per game (37/30) since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 0.8.

The Cowboys defense has forced 17 fumbles this season — most in NFL.

Only 11% of the plays run against the Cowboys have been in the red zone since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

Only 35% of the plays run against the Cowboys have been in their own territory in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats for Week 15

The Jaguars defense did not allow a successful play on any play in the 3rd quarter in Week 14 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Jaguars defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 54% in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Jaguars defense intercepted 6 of 542 attempts (90.3 pass attempts per int.) last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42.6.

The Jaguars defense has allowed opponents to catch just 35 of 64 passes (55% Reception Pct) in close and late situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 66%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.