Dolphins vs 49ers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 01, 2022, 11:45 AM
  • The 49ers (7-4) are -4 point favorites vs the Dolphins (8-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Miami Dolphins (8-3) visit Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers (7-4) on Dec. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EST in Santa Clara.

The 49ers are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).

The Dolphins vs. 49ers Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.

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Dolphins vs. 49ers Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Dolphins+4 -11046.5 -110+155
49ers -4 -11046.5 -110-190

Dolphins vs. 49ers Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the 49ers will win this Week 13 game with 64.0% confidence.

Dolphins vs 49ers Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the 49ers will cover the spread this Week 13 with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Dolphins and 49ers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Jaylen Waddle has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Jeff Wilson has hit the Carries Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Tyreek Hill has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.95 Units / 39% ROI)

Best 49ers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for 49ers players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian McCaffrey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 63% ROI)
  • George Kittle has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+4.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Jauan Jennings has hit the Receptions Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.15 Units / 95% ROI)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Jauan Jennings has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.95 Units / 59% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for 49ers vs Dolphins

Player Name Over Under
Jauan Jennings 20.5 -115 20.5 -115
Trent Sherfield 22.5 -120 22.5 -110
Mike Gesicki 21.5 -115 21.5 -115
Jaylen Waddle 66.5 -120 66.5 -115
Tyreek Hill 89.5 -115 89.5 -115
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+9.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in their last 7 away games (+7.45 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.95 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+5.10 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have covered the 2Q Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.95 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.50 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 28% ROI)

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins have gone 6-5 (+0.45 Units / 3.64% ROI).

  • Dolphins are 8-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.55 Units / 22.38% ROI
  • Dolphins are 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
  • Dolphins are 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / ROI

49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers have gone 6-5 (+0.5 Units / 4.15% ROI).

  • 49ers are 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.91% ROI
  • 49ers are 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
  • 49ers are 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers

The Dolphins are undefeated (4-0) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .496.

The Dolphins are undefeated (5-0) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .587.

The Dolphins are 6-2 (.750) when rushing less than 25 times this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .304.

The Dolphins are undefeated (4-0) vs top 10 run offenses this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .420.

San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The 49ers are winless (0-1) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .358.

The 49ers are 3-1 (.750) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game this season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .539.

The 49ers are 4-1 (.800) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .555.

The 49ers are winless (0-2) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .396.

Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have a third down conversion rate of 40.7% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — second-best in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 26.8% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

The 49ers are averaging 5.5 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field this season — third-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 5.7 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the left this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.

The 49ers have thrown the ball 10 yards or less 73.9% of pass attempts this season — fourth-highest in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 6.8 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards this season — third-worst in NFL.

Dolphins TEs have just 29.4 receiving yards per game this season — second-worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed an average ofjust 32.4 receiving yards per game to TEs this season — fourth-best in NFL.

The Dolphins have rushed for 1,054 yards this season — fifth-fewest in NFL. The 49ers have allowed 884 yards rushing this season — fewest in NFL.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats for Week 13

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Dolphins have thrown 62% of their pass attempts 1 to 10 yards downfield this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 71%.

The Dolphins have averaged 9.0 yards per attempt (2,558 yards/285 attempts) on passes out of the shotgun this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6.9.

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 31% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats for Week 13

The 49ers have a third down conversion rate of 41% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The 49ers have an average drive start position from the 16.5 yard line in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 24.5.

The 49ers have gone three and out on 12% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The 49ers have an average drive start position from the 22.3 yard line in the 2nd half since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 27.2.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats for Week 13

25% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Dolphins defense allowed successful plays on 12% of plays in the 1st half in Week 12 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Dolphins defense allowed successful plays on 19% of pass attempts in the 1st half in Week 12 — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Dolphins defense allowed at least 5 yards on 37% of first down plays last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats for Week 13

The 49ers defense has not allowed any points in 3 games in the 2nd half since Week 9 — best in NFL; League Avg: 9.9.

The 49ers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 14.6 in the red zone (12 Pass Attempts) since Week 9 — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.1.

The 49ers defense allowed no passing TDs (30 pass attempts) in Week 12 — tied for best Pass Attempts Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 21.5.

The 49ers defense has allowed 15.4 Points per Game (169/11) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21.9.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.