Dolphins vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 15

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 16, 2022, 4:10 PM
  • The Bills (10-3) are -7.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins (8-5)
  • Total (Over/Under): 42 points
  • Watch the game on NFL Network

The Miami Dolphins (8-5) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (10-3) on Dec. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Orchard Park.

The Bills are betting favorites in Week 15, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).

The Dolphins vs. Bills Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.

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Dolphins vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 15

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Dolphins+7 -11044 -110+240
Bills -7 -11044 -110-300

Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction for Week 15

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 15 game with 74.5% confidence.

Dolphins vs Bills Spread Prediction for Week 15

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread this Week 15 with 53.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Dolphins and Bills, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for Week 15, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jeff Wilson has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Trent Sherfield has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Completions Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+4.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jaylen Waddle has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+4.75 Units / 21% ROI)

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 15, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.40 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Devin Singletary has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.75 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Nyheim Hines has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Devin Singletary has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.00 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+4.85 Units / 27% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Dolphins

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Stefon Diggs +550
Raheem Mostert +800
Gabriel Davis +800
Jaylen Waddle +900
Devin Singletary +1000

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Dolphins

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Stefon Diggs -125
Raheem Mostert +130
Gabriel Davis +138
Jeff Wilson +155
Jaylen Waddle +155

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bills vs Dolphins

Player Name Over Under
Gabriel Davis 38.5 -110 38.5 -120
Devin Singletary 8.5 -120 8.5 -105
Tyreek Hill 76.5 -115 76.5 -115
Dawson Knox 26.5 -120 26.5 -110
Mike Gesicki 16.5 -115 16.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bills vs Dolphins

Player Name Over Under
Devin Singletary 42.5 -120 42.5 -110
Josh Allen 45.5 -115 45.5 -120
Tua Tagovailoa 5.5 -110 5.5 -120
Raheem Mostert 49.5 -115 49.5 -115
James Cook 25.5 -120 25.5 -110
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 away games (+7.20 Units / 69% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.75 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.45 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.15 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+5.10 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+9.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+9.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have scored first in 15 of their last 19 games (+8.65 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.40 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins have gone 6-7 (-1.85 Units / -12.63% ROI).

  • Dolphins are 8-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 10.56% ROI
  • Dolphins are 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
  • Dolphins are 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 6-6 (-0.6 Units / -4.18% ROI).

  • Bills are 10-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.42% ROI
  • Bills are 3-10 when betting the Over for -8 Units / -55.94% ROI
  • Bills are 10-3 when betting the Under for +6.7 Units / 46.85% ROI

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Dolphins are 1-4 (.200) when throwing at least 1 interception this season — tied for eighth-worst in NFL. The Bills have intercepted 13 passes this season — tied for fifth-most in NFL.

The Dolphins are 5-1 (.833) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Bills have turned the ball over 21 times this season — tied for third-most in NFL.

The Dolphins are undefeated (4-0) when forcing at least one fumble this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .593.

The Dolphins are 1-3 (.250) when losing at least one fumble this season — tied for 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .389.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Bills are 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .518.

The Bills are 16-2 (.889) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .563.

The Bills are 17-4 (.810) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .551.

The Bills are 12-2 (.857) vs bottom 10 pass defenses since the 2021 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .530.

Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

Bills WRs have 192 receptions in 13 games (14.8 per game) this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 25.3 receptions per game this season — tied for second-worst in NFL.

The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 53.8% in the first half this season — best in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 48.8% in the first half this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Bills have scored on 47.8% of their drives in the second half since Week 11 — tied for fourth-best in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed scores on 44.4% of opponent drives in the second half since Week 11 — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Dolphins ran successful plays on just 20.0% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field last week — second-worst in NFL. Bills allowed successful plays on just 34.2% of pass attempts on their own side of the field in Week 14 — fifth-best in NFL.

The Dolphins ran just 16.3% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field last week — worst in NFL. Bills allowed their opponents to runjust 23.3% of plays in their territory in Week 14 — second-best in NFL.

The Dolphins ran just 0.0% offensive plays in the red zone last week — worst in NFL. Bills allowed their opponent to run just 6.8% of plays in the red zone in Week 14 — third-best in NFL.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats for Week 15

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 0% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter since Week 11 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Dolphins have not converted a first down on 4 plays (0%) on 3rd and short since Week 11 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 62%.

The Dolphins ran 16% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in Week 14 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Dolphins ran no plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half in Week 14 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Week 15

The Bills ran 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Bills went three and out on 46% of their drives in Week 14 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Bills have committed 5 turnovers in the red zone this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Bills have an average drive start position from the 33.3 yard line in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25.6.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats for Week 15

25% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed a passer rating of 96.4 (480 Pass Attempts) this season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 90.1.

The Dolphins defense has allowed opponents to catch 42 of 53 passes (79% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 63%.

The Dolphins defense allowed at least 5 yards on 37% of first down plays last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Week 15

The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 73.1 (1,003 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.5.

The Bills defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (298 completions/531 attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 65%.

The Bills defense allowed 12 TD passes last season — fewest in NFL.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.