Dolphins vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – AFC Wild Card Playoffs

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 15, 2023, 10:35 AM
  • The Bills (13-3) are -13 point favorites vs the Dolphins (9-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Miami Dolphins (9-8) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (13-3) on Jan. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Orchard Park for the AFC Wild Card game.

The Bills are betting favorites in this playoff game, with the spread sitting at -13 (-110).

The Dolphins vs. Bills Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Dolphins vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under, AFC Wild Card Game

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Dolphins+13 -11043.5 -110+550
Bills -13 -11043.5 -110-800

Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction for AFC Wild Card game

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this AFC Wild Card game with 79.0% confidence.

Dolphins vs Bills Spread Prediction for AFC Wild Card game

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread this AFC Wild Card game with 53.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Dolphins and Bills, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for the AFC Wild Card game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Jaylen Waddle has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Mike Gesicki has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Jeff Wilson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.45 Units / 43% ROI)

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for the AFC Wild Card game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Isaiah McKenzie has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.05 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.85 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Devin Singletary has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 60% ROI)
  • James Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Isaiah McKenzie has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bills vs Dolphins

Player Name Over Under
Gabriel Davis 48.5 -110 48.5 -120
Devin Singletary 10.5 -120 10.5 -110
James Cook 11.5 -110 11.5 -120
Stefon Diggs 77.5 -115 77.5 -115
Dawson Knox 34.5 -110 34.5 -120

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bills vs Dolphins

Player Name Over Under
Josh Allen 51.5 -115 51.5 -115
Devin Singletary 46.5 -115 46.5 -115
James Cook 35.5 -115 35.5 -115
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.75 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.85 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.40 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.40 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.80 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+5.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Game Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 93% ROI)

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins have gone 9-8 (+0.1 Units / 0.53% ROI).

  • Dolphins are 9-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 0.3% ROI
  • Dolphins are 8-9 when betting the Over for -1.9 Units / -10.16% ROI
  • Dolphins are 9-8 when betting the Under for +0.2 Units / ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 8-7 (+0.3 Units / 1.7% ROI).

  • Bills are 13-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 4.77% ROI
  • Bills are 6-10 when betting the Over for -5 Units / -28.41% ROI
  • Bills are 10-6 when betting the Under for +3.4 Units / 19.32% ROI

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Dolphins are 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. The Bills have intercepted 17 passes this season — tied for fourth-most in NFL.

The Dolphins are undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 22 points this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .711.

The Dolphins are undefeated (13-0) when allowing less than 22 points since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .735.

The Dolphins are 3-6 (.333) on the road this season — tied for 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .432.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Bills are 18-2 (.900) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .568.

The Bills are 6-3 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times this season — tied for 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .321.

The Bills are 17-3 (.850) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .560.

The Bills are winless (0-2) when allowing more than 50% of third down conversions opportunities since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .272.

Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bills have scored on 42.9% of their drives in the first quarter since Week 15 — tied for third-best in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed scores on 50% of opponent drives in the first quarter since Week 15 — second-worst in NFL.

The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 55.6% in the first half this season — best in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 47.3% in the first half this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

Bills WRs have 14 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — fourth-most in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 24 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — tied for second-most in NFL.

The Dolphins have a third down conversion rate of just 28.3% in the fourth quarter this season — third-worst in NFL. The Bills defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 29.3% in the 4th quarter this season — fifth-best in NFL.

The Dolphins have an average drive start position from the 23.3 yard line this season — worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed an average drive start position from the 24.5 yard line this season — best in NFL.

Dolphins RBs have averaged 2.1 yards after contact per carry since Week 15 — tied for fourth-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 2.6 yards after contact per carry to RBs since Week 15 — tied for second-worst in NFL.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats for AFC Wild Card game

The Dolphins have an average drive start position from the 20.6 yard line in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25.9.

The Dolphins have converted first downs on just 25 of 54 plays (46%) on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.

The Dolphins did not record a TD in 9 drives in Week 18 — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

The Dolphins have gone three and out on 10% of their drives in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for AFC Wild Card game

The Bills have an average drive start position from the 32.7 yard line in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25.7.

The Bills ran 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Bills have run 24% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 32% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats for AFC Wild Card game

20% of the plays run against the Dolphins have been in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Dolphins defense allowed successful plays on 10% of rush attempts in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Dolphins defense did not allow a successful play on any rush attempt in the 1st half in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Dolphins defense allowed successful plays on 25% of plays in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for AFC Wild Card game

The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

The Bills’ opponents averaged 44.2 Passing Attempts per TD (531 Pass Attempts/12 Passing TDs) last season — best Pass Attempts Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 22.3.

The Bills defense allowed just 179.2 receiving yards per game (3,047/17) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 244.0.

The Bills defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 31% last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.