Dolphins vs Chargers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 14

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 11, 2022, 10:00 AM
  • The Dolphins (8-4) are -3 point favorites vs the Chargers (6-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Miami Dolphins visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers on Dec. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EST in Inglewood.

The Dolphins are betting favorites in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Dolphins vs. Chargers Over/Under is 55 total points for the game.

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Dolphins vs. Chargers Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 14

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Dolphins-3.5 -10555 -110-175
Chargers +3.5 -11555 -110+145

Dolphins vs. Chargers Prediction for Week 14

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this Week 14 game with 53.5% confidence.

Dolphins vs Chargers Spread Prediction for Week 14

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chargers will cover the spread this Week 14 with 59.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Dolphins and Chargers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for Week 14, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Trent Sherfield has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Tyreek Hill has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+5.05 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Jeff Wilson has hit the Carries Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 79% ROI)

Best Chargers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for Week 14, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Keenan Allen has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.20 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Sony Michel has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.30 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Josh Palmer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Gerald Everett has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+3.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Austin Ekeler has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+3.45 Units / 19% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chargers vs Dolphins

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Austin Ekeler +550
Jeff Wilson +700
Jaylen Waddle +700
Tyreek Hill +750
Raheem Mostert +800

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chargers vs Dolphins

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Austin Ekeler -175
Jeff Wilson -125
Jaylen Waddle -110
Tyreek Hill -110
Raheem Mostert +120

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chargers vs Dolphins

Player Name Over Under
Raheem Mostert 7.5 -120 7.5 -110
Mike Gesicki 19.5 -110 19.5 -120
Jeff Wilson Jr. 11.5 -110 11.5 -120
Tyreek Hill 98.5 -115 98.5 -115
Jaylen Waddle 68.5 -115 68.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chargers vs Dolphins

Player Name Over Under
Raheem Mostert 47.5 -120 47.5 -110
Justin Herbert 15.5 -120 15.5 -110
Tua Tagovailoa 4.5 -110 4.5 -120
Jeff Wilson Jr. 43.5 -110 43.5 -120
Austin Ekeler 44.5 -120 44.5 -110
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.95 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.95 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.20 Units / 66% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+4.10 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2Q Spread in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.90 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.40 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+7.05 Units / 80% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 32% ROI)

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins have gone 6-6 (-0.65 Units / -4.83% ROI).

  • Dolphins are 8-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.55 Units / 17.64% ROI
  • Dolphins are 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Dolphins are 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / ROI

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers have gone 7-5 (+1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI).

  • Chargers are 6-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -15.36% ROI
  • Chargers are 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -12.12% ROI
  • Chargers are 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 3.79% ROI

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The Dolphins are 6-1 (.857) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent this season — eighth-best in NFL. The Chargers has allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 14 s this season — fifth-highest in NFL.

The Dolphins are 6-3 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .302.

The Dolphins are undefeated (4-0) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .492.

The Dolphins are 8-3 (.727) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .547.

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Chargers are 4-2 (.667) when not losing a fumble this season — tied for 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .562.

The Chargers are undefeated (3-0) when allowing less than 22 points this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .719.

The Chargers are 4-1 (.800) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs this season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

The Chargers are 4-5 (.444) when rushing less than 25 times this season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .302.

Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on just 7.5% of 228 carries this season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 10+ yards on just 7.7% of carries to RBs this season — fifth-best in NFL.

The Chargers went three and out on 8.3% of their drives last week — tied for fourth-best in NFL. Dolphins forced three and outs on 8.3% of opponent drives in Week 13 — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

The Chargers have gone three and out on 15.9% of their drives since Week 10 — fifth-best in NFL. Dolphins have forced three and outs on 14.7% of opponent drives since Week 10 — tied for second-worst in NFL.

The Dolphins have 24 touchdown passes this season — fourth-most in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 20 passing TDs this season — tied for fifth-most in NFL.

The Dolphins have scored on 46.2% of their drives in the first quarter this season — tied for third-best in NFL. The Chargers defense has allowed scores on 42.4% of opponent drives in the first quarter this season — worst in NFL.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 50.0% of rush attempts since Week 10 — tied for fourth-best in NFL. Chargers have allowed successful plays on 53.5% of rush attempts since Week 10 — worst in NFL.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats for Week 14

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Dolphins had a third down conversion rate of 6% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Dolphins had a third down conversion rate of 0% in Week 13 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

The Dolphins ran the ball on 18% of plays (8 carries/45 plays) in Week 13 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats for Week 14

The Chargers averaged 121.6 yards from scrimmage per game (2,067 yards / 17 games) in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 94.8.

The Chargers have targeted RBs 26% of the time (135 Pass Attempts/511 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

The Chargers had a third down conversion rate of 35% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Chargers converted first downs on 32 of 91 plays (35%) on 3rd and long last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats for Week 14

25% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Dolphins defense allowed at least 5 yards on 37% of first down plays last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed 4.8 points per Red Zone drive this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.3.

19% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats for Week 14

The Chargers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 59% on 3rd and long since Week 10 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The Chargers defense has allowed 3.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (95 yards / 31 touches) on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6.4.

The Chargers defense has allowed successful plays on 57% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

20% of the plays run against the Chargers have been in the red zone in the 3rd quarter this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.