- The Falcons are -7.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins
- Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Miami Dolphins (1-6-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (3-3-0) on Oct. 26. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).
The Dolphins vs. Falcons Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.
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Dolphins vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Dolphins | +7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | 310 |
| Falcons | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -400 |
Dolphins vs. Falcons Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 75.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Dolphins vs Falcons Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 54.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today
- Devon Achane has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.70 Units / 68% ROI)
- Malik Washington has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.16 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ollie Gordon II has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Nick Westbrook has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- Malik Washington has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 59% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 60% ROI)
- Drake London has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+4.45 Units / 60% ROI)
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Carries Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Michael Penix Jr. has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.00 Units / 28% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Falcons vs Dolphins
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | 60.5 -115 | 60.5 -115 |
| Malik Washington (MIA) | 22.5 -118 | 22.5 -115 |
| Kyle Pitts (ATL) | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -118 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 64.5 -115 | 64.5 -115 |
| De'Von Achane (MIA) | 30.5 -115 | 30.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Falcons vs Dolphins
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane (MIA) | 63.5 -115 | 63.5 -115 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 94.5 -115 | 94.5 -118 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 43.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 |
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.18 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.95 Units / 20% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+5.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+4.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.20 Units / 14% ROI)
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 3-4 (-1.4 Units / -17.95% ROI).
- Dolphins are 1-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -68.52% ROI
- Dolphins are 6-1 when betting the Over for +4.9 Units / 63.64% ROI
- Dolphins are 1-6 when betting the Under for -5.6 Units / ROI
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 3-3 (-0.3 Units / -4.51% ROI).
- Falcons are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -3.75% ROI
- Falcons are 1-5 when betting the Over for -4.5 Units / -68.18% ROI
- Falcons are 5-1 when betting the Under for +3.9 Units / 59.09% ROI
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons defense allowed 8 broken tackles in Week 7 — T-most in NFL.
The Falcons defense has allowed 8 receptions for 20+ yards this season — fewest in NFL.
The Falcons defense has allowed an average of 4.3 fantasy points per game to TEs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 13.2.
The Falcons defense has allowed a late down conversion rate of 12% when opponents had over 10 yards to go since Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 3%.
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Falcons have averaged 8.5 yards per play on first drive of the game this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.
The Falcons have thrown the ball 5% of the time (1 Pass Attempts/20 plays) on plays under center this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Falcons have averaged -0.72 epa per play on passing attempts on plays up the middle this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.12.
The Falcons have averaged -0.17 epa per play on play action passes this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.10.
Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have averaged 8.5 yards per play on first drive of the game this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.
The Falcons have thrown the ball 5% of the time (1 Pass Attempts/20 plays) on plays under center this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Falcons have averaged -0.72 epa per play on passing attempts on plays up the middle this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.12.
The Falcons have averaged -0.17 epa per play on play action passes this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.10.
The Falcons defense allowed 8 broken tackles in Week 7 — T-most in NFL.
The Falcons defense has allowed 8 receptions for 20+ yards this season — fewest in NFL.
The Falcons defense has allowed an average of 4.3 fantasy points per game to TEs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 13.2.
The Falcons defense has allowed a late down conversion rate of 12% when opponents had over 10 yards to go since Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 3%.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons defense allowed 8 broken tackles in Week 7 — T-most in NFL.
The Falcons defense has allowed 8 receptions for 20+ yards this season — fewest in NFL.
The Falcons defense has allowed an average of 4.3 fantasy points per game to TEs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 13.2.
The Falcons defense has allowed a late down conversion rate of 12% when opponents had over 10 yards to go since Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 3%.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons have averaged 8.5 yards per play on first drive of the game this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.
The Falcons have thrown the ball 5% of the time (1 Pass Attempts/20 plays) on plays under center this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Falcons have averaged -0.72 epa per play on passing attempts on plays up the middle this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.12.
The Falcons have averaged -0.17 epa per play on play action passes this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.10.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
The Falcons defense allowed 8 broken tackles in Week 7 — T-most in NFL.
The Falcons defense has allowed 8 receptions for 20+ yards this season — fewest in NFL.
The Falcons defense has allowed an average of 4.3 fantasy points per game to TEs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 13.2.
The Falcons defense has allowed a late down conversion rate of 12% when opponents had over 10 yards to go since Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 3%.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
The Falcons have averaged 8.5 yards per play on first drive of the game this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.
The Falcons have thrown the ball 5% of the time (1 Pass Attempts/20 plays) on plays under center this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Falcons have averaged -0.72 epa per play on passing attempts on plays up the middle this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.12.
The Falcons have averaged -0.17 epa per play on play action passes this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.10.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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